{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T01:47:05Z",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "kind": "person",
  "slug": "michael-howell",
  "name": "Michael Howell",
  "role": "Capital Wars",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-howell/",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/entities/people/michael-howell.json",
  "summary": "Michael Howell is named in 3 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.. Argued in Part 7 (Growth: yields are catching up), Part 10 (A growth signal near a peak), Part 15 (The boom pays the rate), Part 15 (Voices that cross sides).",
  "parts": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "headline": "Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "numbers": [],
  "mentions": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "section": "The calm is real",
      "excerpt": "Michael Howell saw the same calm in the premium investors pay to hold Treasuries rather than comparable AAA bonds.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "section": "Three prices for 5%",
      "excerpt": "Michael Howell estimates nominal output is expanding at roughly 7% to 8% and says a 10-year yield near 5% remains about two percentage points too low.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "section": "A cheap top",
      "excerpt": "Michael Howell of Capital Wars says he underestimated AI spending’s lift to earnings; David George at a16z credits technology with about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth through late August.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "section": "The bill raises the rate",
      "excerpt": "Michael Howell reads the curve more kindly.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "section": "Lede",
      "excerpt": "On September 27, Michael Howell of Capital Wars wrote that history shows the real economy turning fragile as long-term rates approach 5.5%, so the next large move in Treasury yields may be down.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "sides": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "growth",
      "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up",
      "claim": "The current bond market cycle is behaving like a normal cycle, and a major buying opportunity for fixed income is approaching as yields near a peak.",
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "growth",
      "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up",
      "claim": "The risk-return balance for bonds is improving: a further 50bp yield rise would still give bonds a positive annual return, while a subsequent 100bp yield fall would generate a more than 12% annual return.",
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "question": "what-does-5-percent-do",
      "side": "growth-signal-near-a-peak",
      "sideLabel": "A growth signal near a peak",
      "claim": "The recent rise in Treasury yields has been driven primarily by higher expected short-term interest rates rather than by expanding term premia, and there is a reasonable case that term premia have actually been declining.",
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "question": "what-does-5-percent-do",
      "side": "growth-signal-near-a-peak",
      "sideLabel": "A growth signal near a peak",
      "claim": "Evidence of falling term premia is already visible in the 10-year versus 5-year yield spread narrowing to 13bp from over 45bp at the start of 2026.",
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/phoney-press-panic",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "question": null,
      "side": "the-boom-pays-the-rate",
      "sideLabel": "The boom pays the rate",
      "claim": "Term premia have increased only 29 basis points since late June while implied policy-rate expectations have risen 51 basis points, showing policy-rate expectations account for most of the yield rise.",
      "date": "2026-09-11",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/bonds-treasury-qe-and-the-3-3-3-30",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "question": null,
      "side": "the-boom-pays-the-rate",
      "sideLabel": "The boom pays the rate",
      "claim": "Falling term premia signal the market is moving toward the next stage of the cycle, Turbulence, which has historically been challenging for risk assets but favourable for government bonds as investors scramble for safe assets.",
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/phoney-press-panic",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "question": null,
      "side": "crossing",
      "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides",
      "claim": "Long-term Treasury yields are rising because the US economy is very strong: nominal GDP growth has accelerated, supported by a persistent fiscal deficit of around 6% of GDP and a large wave of AI-related capital expenditure.",
      "date": "2026-08-23",
      "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/bonds-bessent-and-bedlam",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-10-22"
}