{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T01:47:05Z",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "kind": "person",
  "slug": "tscs",
  "name": "TSCS",
  "role": "tscsw",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tscs/",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/entities/people/tscs.json",
  "summary": "TSCS is named in 4 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 7 (Voices that cross sides), Part 13 (The bill no state can shield), Part 13 (The plant is late), Part 13 (Voices that cross sides).",
  "parts": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "headline": "The Ratepayer Pays First",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "headline": "Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "numbers": [],
  "mentions": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "section": "The calm is real",
      "excerpt": "Dealers were left holding 2.2%, the smallest share in the 14 years of records TSCS could pull.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "section": "The calm is real",
      "excerpt": "TSCS warns that thin trading in inflation-protected bonds makes the split less precise; a Fed staff model that strips out that illiquidity puts it closer to 70/30 than 90/10.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "section": "Three prices for 5%",
      "excerpt": "TSCS found Japan’s $135 billion fall in Treasury holdings between February and July was mostly bills and falling prices.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "section": "The bill raises the rate",
      "excerpt": "TSCS sees a different mechanism.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "section": "The tests ahead",
      "excerpt": "A 5.5% 10-year yield will test Howell’s history against TSCS’s long-end warning.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "section": "Lede",
      "excerpt": "The auction of July 2024 set it at $269.92 per megawatt-day for the year from June 2025, nine times the $28.92 of the auction before, and every auction since has cleared at the price ceiling, as PJM's auction reports show and tscsw recounted on August 11.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "section": "Lede",
      "excerpt": "The auction for the year from June 2027, PJM reported on December 17, 2025 and tscsw wrote on February 26, was the first since the market began in 2007 to miss PJM's reliability requirement: a reserve margin, the cushion of plants above expected peak demand, of 14.8% against a 20.0% target, 6,623 megawatts short.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "section": "The plant is late",
      "excerpt": "The strongest form of this side cuts against the house. tscsw's February 26 post held that if 15 to 20 gigawatts of data center load moves behind the meter by 2030, the grid's deficit and the scarcity premium paid to generators in PJM and ERCOT would shrink.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "section": "The two shocks compound",
      "excerpt": "TSCS wrote on September 16 that both keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P 500 is the only release valve the Treasury's buybacks leave open.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "section": "The bill comes as a real yield",
      "excerpt": "TSCS measured the split on September 21: from the February 27 low the 10-year had risen 104 basis points, 96 of them real yield and 8 breakeven inflation.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "section": "The bill comes as a real yield",
      "excerpt": "DeepStack judged TSCS's split a qualification of Romero's link: the oil-to-yield channel runs through the real yield, not through inflation expectations.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "sides": [
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "debt",
      "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%",
      "claim": "The Federal Reserve faces a trap: if it hikes rates it loses control of the long end because it feeds an annual interest bill approaching $1 trillion, but if it cuts despite 3.4% inflation it also loses the long end, creating a frustrating setup…",
      "date": "2026-08-29",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "debt",
      "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%",
      "claim": "TSCS argues governments and central banks do not want long yields higher and will go a long way to stop it, which means that if they succeed real yields fall and today's 2.65% over inflation won't be on offer for long, and if the way they succeed…",
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "missing-buyer",
      "sideLabel": "A missing buyer",
      "claim": "Oil explains the day-to-day wiggles in yields but not the trend, since Brent is cheaper today than at its spring peak while the 10-year is 70bp higher, even though since the war a $10 Brent move has come with about 5bp on the 10-year (roughly 3…",
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "missing-buyer",
      "sideLabel": "A missing buyer",
      "claim": "TSCS argues the front end cannot cap the long end: a hike is only about 4/10 of a percent of receipts and mostly lands as income with people who spend it, Treasury buybacks manage volatility rather than level, and the buyers who used to close the…",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "crossing",
      "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides",
      "claim": "Kevin Warsh is a pretend hawk rather than a constrained one, meaning he talks tough on inflation while avoiding costly action, and this position can be falsified by a rate hike on 16 September.",
      "date": "2026-08-29",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "crossing",
      "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides",
      "claim": "TSCS's forward view is that oil and long yields keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P is the only release valve left: the bond-market valve that worked in April 2025 is the one the buybacks are designed to keep shut.",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "question": null,
      "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield",
      "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield",
      "claim": "Interconnection queues, turbine shortages, and permitting gridlock are preventing $33 billion offers from translating into actual megawatts of new capacity.",
      "date": "2026-02-26",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/there-is-no-power",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "question": null,
      "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield",
      "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield",
      "claim": "The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.",
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "question": null,
      "side": "the-plant-is-late",
      "sideLabel": "The plant is late",
      "claim": "PJM's 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction failed to meet the reliability requirement for the first time since the capacity market's creation in 2007, achieving only a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, a shortfall of 6,623 MW.",
      "date": "2026-02-26",
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/there-is-no-power",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    },
    {
      "part": 13,
      "question": null,
      "side": "crossing",
      "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides",
      "claim": "The capacity price ninefold; the auction short; on-site power could shrink the gap.",
      "date": null,
      "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-ratepayer-pays-first/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-ratepayer-pays-first/"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-10-22"
}