{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T03:46:57Z",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "part": 10,
  "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/",
  "card": "https://deepstack.ltd/embed/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/card.svg",
  "story": {
    "headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator",
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/",
    "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator.json"
  },
  "question": "Does the hardware hold its value?",
  "call": {
    "tone": "bear",
    "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
    "stance": "Cheap is conditional",
    "line": "The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.",
    "conviction": 4,
    "convictionLabel": "High",
    "actions": [
      "Hold the 5.26% earnings yield (19.0 times earnings) against the 10-year: when the bond pays more, stocks offer no risk premium.",
      "Stress-test the 29.5% earnings growth for server lives and depreciation before you pay for it.",
      "Treat the $250 billion of hyperscaler bonds as competition for the savings that set the discount rate."
    ],
    "flips": [
      "Used-chip values and server lives hold after scarcity fades.",
      "Productivity turns higher and lab revenue compounds toward the checks the infrastructure requires."
    ],
    "side": "A model, not a price",
    "against": {
      "name": "David George",
      "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/david-george/",
      "claim": "GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.",
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii",
      "access": "public",
      "answers": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence"
    },
    "version": 2,
    "updatedOn": "2026-10-09",
    "history": [
      {
        "version": 1,
        "date": "2026-10-07",
        "stance": "Cheap is conditional",
        "tone": "bear",
        "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
        "conviction": 4,
        "convictionLabel": "High",
        "line": "The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.",
        "reason": "First call, as published with the story. The conviction, the actions and the flips were set down for the site on October 7, 2026.",
        "by": "DeepStack"
      },
      {
        "version": 2,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "stance": "Cheap is conditional",
        "tone": "bear",
        "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
        "conviction": 4,
        "convictionLabel": "High",
        "line": "The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.",
        "side": "A model, not a price",
        "reason": "Side named by the owner.",
        "by": "Marco Cauduro"
      }
    ],
    "nextTest": {
      "id": "p10-t02",
      "part": 10,
      "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator",
      "when": "October",
      "whenLabel": "By Oct 31, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "precision": "month",
      "event": "Anthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-10T17:40:22Z",
      "callProbability": null,
      "callProbabilityAt": null,
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "label",
        "ref": "October",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "The answer is yes if a registration statement for Anthropic carrying audited revenue, net loss and customer-concentration disclosures is public on EDGAR by October 31, 2026, or its shares begin trading by that date; no otherwise. The audited figures against the $400 billion run-rate line Romero named for the end of 2027, and the two-customer share Silverio cited, are DeepStack's reading into the Result.",
        "question": "Did Anthropic file a registration statement (Form S-1 or equivalent) with audited financial statements on SEC EDGAR, or begin trading, by October 31, 2026?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=anthropic&type=S-1"
        },
        "ambiguity": "A confidential draft filing reported in the press but not public on EDGAR, or a filing without audited statements, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 2,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Marco Cauduro"
          },
          {
            "version": 2,
            "date": "2026-10-12",
            "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.",
            "by": "Marco Cauduro"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either"
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p10-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch",
      "resultUrl": null
    },
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#verdict"
  },
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "a-model-not-a-price",
      "label": "A model, not a price",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Michael Burry",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
          "claim": "CoreWeave and Nvidia's efforts to show stamina in the pricing of their chips are simply at odds with the depreciation realities lenders actually face.",
          "date": "2026-09-28",
          "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-a-wall-street-titan",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Burry",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
          "claim": "Manufacturers such as Nvidia and hyperscalers such as Oracle and Google Cloud are offering residual value guarantees for chips not because they want to but because lenders require them, given that chip depreciation is a very real problem following…",
          "date": "2026-09-28",
          "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-a-wall-street-titan",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Ren",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
          "claim": "Architectures change faster than factories can retool, and with NVIDIA targeting up to 30% lower total cost of ownership with 800 VDC, a shift that large rewards whoever redesigns fastest, so today's winning box may not win in five years, which…",
          "date": "2026-09-28",
          "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/power-supply-supply-chain",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Ren",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
          "claim": "The popular Jevons-paradox story that cheaper inference means bulk consumption and justifies simply buying the picks-and-shovels trade does not match Astra's actual pricing, since Astra's tokens got more expensive per unit (versus Sol, 2.5x on…",
          "date": "2026-09-15",
          "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/openai-astra-has-agi-arrived",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kakashii",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/",
          "claim": "Kakashii calculates that Nvidia's plan to ship over 10 million chips of Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 implies a total required power of roughly 17 to 23 GW, averaging around 20 GW, and questions whether enough data centers are under…",
          "date": "2026-10-05",
          "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/nvidia-series-part-1-jensens-math",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kakashii",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/",
          "claim": "Kakashii's long-standing thesis, which they say has gained support and validation over time, is that Blackwell GPUs had to be shipped to warehouses because there were not enough compatible datacenters (with the needed cooling and equipment) to…",
          "date": "2026-10-05",
          "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/nvidia-series-part-1-jensens-math",
          "access": "paid"
        }
      ],
      "against": {
        "name": "David George",
        "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/david-george/",
        "claim": "GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.",
        "date": "2026-09-30",
        "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii",
        "access": "public",
        "answers": "Michael Burry",
        "relation": "contradicts",
        "dimension": "evidence"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "renting-at-january-prices",
      "label": "Still renting at January prices",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "David George",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/david-george/",
          "claim": "GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.",
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "David George",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/david-george/",
          "claim": "Since 2023, tech has been the earnings growth story, contributing about 76% of the S&P 500's total earnings growth in 2026 as of late August.",
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
          "claim": "Contracted GPU lease rates and second-hand prices have held up even for chips launched 3 to 6 years ago, and compute is now about 60% of hyperscaler capex, so the scarce, short-lived asset is a growing share of what is being financed.",
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
          "claim": "The entire AI buildout has been constrained by scarcity of power, GPUs, transformers, interconnection, skilled labor and ready-to-use capacity, and this scarcity has propped up the economics of everything financed against it by holding up lease…",
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Tae Kim",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tae-kim/",
          "claim": "Tae Kim believes that if OpenAI were public, its stock would have gapped up 30% or more on hitting $70 billion in ARR, a blowout versus expectations on the level of Nvidia in May 2023, and that the figure proves his August report that OpenAI's ARR…",
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Tae Kim",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tae-kim/",
          "claim": "Axios reported, and the Financial Times later confirmed the same day, that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion, with enterprise sales more than doubled since July according to sources familiar with the financials.",
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and",
          "access": "paid"
        }
      ],
      "against": {
        "name": "Michael Burry",
        "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
        "claim": "CoreWeave and Nvidia's efforts to show stamina in the pricing of their chips are simply at odds with the depreciation realities lenders actually face.",
        "date": "2026-09-28",
        "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-a-wall-street-titan",
        "access": "paid",
        "answers": "David George",
        "relation": "contradicts",
        "dimension": "evidence"
      }
    }
  ],
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "who-writes-the-checks",
      "question": "Who writes the checks?",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#question-who-writes-the-checks",
      "sides": [
        {
          "id": "not-the-customers-yet",
          "label": "Not the customers, yet",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Torsten Slok",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
              "claim": "Rates are rising for reasons beyond a strong economy: sticky inflation is lifting yields in the front end, record hyperscaler debt issuance is pressuring the belly, and fiscal worries are pushing up the long end.",
              "date": "2026-09-26",
              "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/recent-rates-volatility-risks-and-opportunities-in-credit",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Torsten Slok",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
              "claim": "This disclosure pattern still leaves investors without a verifiable link between AI capex and the top line.",
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-who-is-deploying-ai-to-who-can-prove-the-roi",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Spencer",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/",
              "claim": "Michael Spencer reads declining frontier model usage as a sign that enterprises, startups and power users are becoming more price conscious even as token prices fall, citing Ramp's index showing effective price per million tokens down 41% to $0.68…",
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-insights-is-ai-adoption-slowing-down-ai-risk-debate",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Spencer",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/",
              "claim": "Michael Spencer argues that if there really is around US$3.5 trillion of off-the-books exposure on top of capex, the U.S. is in serious trouble if and when the AI boom falters, referencing an August Wall Street Journal report that combined…",
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-insights-is-ai-adoption-slowing-down-ai-risk-debate",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Mia Silverio",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/mia-silverio/",
              "claim": "Anthropic's expected ~$2 trillion IPO valuation is not justified by its numbers, given that it would need $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years (per Aswath Damodaran) to justify that valuation while the entire current AI products and…",
              "date": "2026-10-05",
              "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/americans-are-turning-on-ai-anthropic",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Mia Silverio",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/mia-silverio/",
              "claim": "Anthropic's customer concentration is a risk for its $2 trillion valuation: nearly a quarter of its 2025 revenue came from two customers and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google, which is an acceptable problem for a small company but not for…",
              "date": "2026-10-05",
              "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/americans-are-turning-on-ai-anthropic",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Steve Eisman",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/",
              "claim": "Nvidia's top five customers accounted for seventy percent of accounts receivable for the quarter, and some of those customers including OpenAI are not in especially healthy financial condition.",
              "date": "2026-09-14",
              "url": null,
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Steve Eisman",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/",
              "claim": "Bessent's announced program to buy $4 billion, later raised to $6 billion, in long term Treasuries worked for one day before rates marched higher, so he needs a much bigger bazooka or an alternative buyer.",
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "url": null,
              "access": "paid"
            }
          ],
          "against": {
            "name": "Jensen Huang",
            "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/jensen-huang/",
            "claim": "NVIDIA will generate increasingly large amounts of cash from being at the center of what he calls the largest industrial infrastructure build out in human history, and the smart use of that cash is to buy NVIDIA stock because he believes it is…",
            "date": "2026-09-29",
            "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/jensen-huang-press-q-and-a-nvidia",
            "access": "paid",
            "answers": "Steve Eisman",
            "relation": "contradicts",
            "dimension": "evidence"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "everyone-soon",
          "label": "Everyone, soon",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Aurelion Research",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/aurelion-research/",
              "claim": "The customer base is broadening beyond a concentrated set of hyperscalers to enterprises, AI-native companies and cloud providers, with AI-related infrastructure commitments expected to exceed $3.1 trillion, making the next phase of demand less…",
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Aurelion Research",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/aurelion-research/",
              "claim": "Aurelion Research treats sharply rising third-party token forecasts — Dell moving from 1 quadrillion to 57 quadrillion tokens per month by end-2028, and a Goldman Sachs estimate roughly 10x Dell's revised number — as showing AI usage growing far…",
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Tae Kim",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tae-kim/",
              "claim": "OpenAI near $70B a year.",
              "date": null,
              "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Kris",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/",
              "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…",
              "date": "2026-09-16",
              "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Kris",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/",
              "claim": "Broadcom and Nvidia can both be winners because ASICs that Broadcom helps hyperscalers and AI labs build are complementary to Nvidia's GPUs rather than competitors, contrary to the framing on social media.",
              "date": "2026-09-16",
              "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Daniel Romero",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
              "claim": "He is already highly concentrated in AI, mostly in power plays, memory, and AMD, and believes that even if the AI trade stays strong, other segments could possibly perform better, which is why he has started diversifying into semicaps.",
              "date": "2026-10-01",
              "url": null,
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Daniel Romero",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
              "claim": "OpenAI's combined annualized revenue with Anthropic reached $105 billion (OpenAI $40 billion, Anthropic $65 billion) in July 2026, which is nowhere near the figure needed to support the modeled 2027 buildout, and this understates the true gap since…",
              "date": "2026-09-21",
              "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-math-behind-the-next-ai-rally",
              "access": "paid"
            }
          ],
          "against": {
            "name": "Torsten Slok",
            "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
            "claim": "The tech silo is betting on a future in which demand for AI and tech services explodes, while the silos covering the companies that would pay for those services see a much more modest outlook, and both cannot be right at the same time.",
            "date": "2026-09-29",
            "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/tech-trillion-dollar-internal-inconsistency",
            "access": "public",
            "answers": "Aurelion Research",
            "relation": "contradicts",
            "dimension": "evidence"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "what-does-5-percent-do",
      "question": "What does 5% do to the multiple?",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#question-what-does-5-percent-do",
      "sides": [
        {
          "id": "growth-signal-near-a-peak",
          "label": "A growth signal near a peak",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Michael Howell",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-howell/",
              "claim": "The recent rise in Treasury yields has been driven primarily by higher expected short-term interest rates rather than by expanding term premia, and there is a reasonable case that term premia have actually been declining.",
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Howell",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-howell/",
              "claim": "Evidence of falling term premia is already visible in the 10-year versus 5-year yield spread narrowing to 13bp from over 45bp at the start of 2026.",
              "date": "2026-09-27",
              "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/phoney-press-panic",
              "access": "public"
            }
          ],
          "against": {
            "name": "TSCS",
            "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tscs/",
            "claim": "Most of this year's rise in the 10-year yield is the real yield rather than inflation expectations: from the 27 February low the 10-year rose 104bp, of which 96bp was real yield and 8bp breakeven, with the market's decade-ahead inflation guess…",
            "date": "2026-09-21",
            "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman",
            "access": "paid",
            "answers": "Michael Howell",
            "relation": "contradicts",
            "dimension": "evidence"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "long-end-nobody-caps",
          "label": "A long end nobody caps",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "TSCS",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tscs/",
              "claim": "As of writing, the ten-year reached 5.04%, the highest since 2007, Brent is over $100 and the S&P is a few percent off its high, so the market priced the hike it asked for and the long end rose anyway.",
              "date": "2026-09-16",
              "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "TSCS",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tscs/",
              "claim": "Most of this year's rise in the 10-year yield is the real yield rather than inflation expectations: from the 27 February low the 10-year rose 104bp, of which 96bp was real yield and 8bp breakeven, with the market's decade-ahead inflation guess…",
              "date": "2026-09-21",
              "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/",
              "claim": "Bond investors are rejecting the government-set price for Treasuries because of large, unaddressed budget deficits that may grow rather than shrink over the next 10 years, and because budget deficits imply inflation; Vitaliy Katsenelson says they…",
              "date": "2026-09-10",
              "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/",
              "claim": "Bond investors are declining to purchase US Treasuries at 4.7% because the US runs large budget deficits that may worsen, and budget deficits lead to inflation paid back through cheaper dollars.",
              "date": "2026-09-10",
              "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Torsten Slok",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
              "claim": "The tech silo is betting on a future in which demand for AI and tech services explodes, while the silos covering the companies that would pay for those services see a much more modest outlook, and both cannot be right at the same time.",
              "date": "2026-09-29",
              "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/tech-trillion-dollar-internal-inconsistency",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Torsten Slok",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
              "claim": "Because data centers, power generation, transmission and government deficits are all long-duration claims on savings, the competition for capital concentrates at the long end of the curve, which is why long rates have moved more than short rates.",
              "date": "2026-09-12",
              "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-a-savings-glut-to-a-savings-shortage",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Burry",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
              "claim": "Acting on the expected AI-boom-to-bust thesis, Michael Burry bought more MetLife (MET) 2029 puts far out of the money.",
              "date": "2026-10-05",
              "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-october-5-2026",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Burry",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
              "claim": "None of the hyperscalers' filings disclose how much of the reported AI demand and revenue growth is circular—originating on a company's own balance sheet and injected into customer companies that then leverage up to generate demand/revenue—and…",
              "date": "2026-09-19",
              "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c",
              "access": "paid"
            }
          ],
          "against": {
            "name": "Ren",
            "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
            "claim": "Big funds were buyers of tech through September, the only sector they added to, yet their exposure is still well below where it stood in July, meaning they have room to buy and know it; this caution is usually resolved by earnings, and a full…",
            "date": "2026-10-05",
            "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/early-october-portfolio-update-the",
            "access": "paid",
            "answers": "Michael Burry",
            "relation": "contradicts",
            "dimension": "evidence"
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "crossings": [
    {
      "from": "Michael Spencer",
      "to": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Michael Spencer qualifies Michael Burry on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies JunkBondInvestor on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Aurelion Research",
      "to": "Daniel Romero",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Aurelion Research contradicts Daniel Romero on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Ren",
      "to": "Michael Spencer",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Ren qualifies Michael Spencer on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Michael Spencer",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies Michael Spencer on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "David George",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Steve Eisman qualifies David George on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Burry",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Michael Burry contradicts Aurelion Research on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "David George",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies David George on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Torsten Slok contradicts Aurelion Research on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Kris",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Torsten Slok contradicts Kris on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Aurelion Research",
      "to": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Aurelion Research contradicts Michael Burry on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Spencer",
      "to": "Steve Eisman",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Michael Spencer qualifies Steve Eisman on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Ren",
      "to": "Michael Howell",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Ren qualifies Michael Howell on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "Ren",
      "relation": "refutes",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Steve Eisman refutes Ren on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "David George",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies David George on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "Ren",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Steve Eisman qualifies Ren on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Spencer",
      "to": "Kris",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Michael Spencer qualifies Kris on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Burry",
      "to": "Michael Spencer",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Michael Burry qualifies Michael Spencer on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Spencer",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Michael Spencer contradicts Aurelion Research on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Ren",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Ren qualifies Torsten Slok on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Aurelion Research",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Aurelion Research qualifies Torsten Slok on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Daniel Romero",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies Daniel Romero on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Ren",
      "to": "Steve Eisman",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Ren contradicts Steve Eisman on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "Ren",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Steve Eisman contradicts Ren on premise."
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    {
      "label": "What the denominator is made of",
      "text": "Earnings, not multiples (Ren): tech's forward multiple up about 14% since October 2022, against 250% in the run to March 2000. Made by the buildout (George, Silverio): tech is 76% of S&P profit growth, half of it from AI spending. Paid for with bonds (Kunimoto): close to $250B of hyperscaler high-grade bonds in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "settles": [
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Late October",
      "date": null,
      "event": "Microsoft and Alphabet report October 28, after Meta on October 21, and Amazon follows on October 29; depreciation, server lives and 29.5% growth will test the earnings denominator.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "October",
      "date": null,
      "event": "Anthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "At 5.5% 10-year",
      "date": null,
      "event": "A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Next used-GPU print",
      "date": null,
      "event": "Three-year-old chip rents and resale prices show whether scarcity or durable economics supports hardware values.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Productivity data",
      "date": null,
      "event": "A rise in total factor productivity would show the rest of the economy can write the checks; a flat reading leaves bondholders exposed.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "By July 12, 2027",
      "date": "2027-07-12",
      "event": "The record holds or breaks: whether the Thrift Savings Plan's C Fund, which holds the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, closes above its October 6 high of $126.18 on any day through July 12, 2027.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/#watch"
    }
  ],
  "grid": {
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/grid/",
    "csv": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/grid.csv",
    "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/sides/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/grid.json"
  },
  "editorial": null
}