{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T03:46:57Z", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "part": 17, "slug": "the-guarantee-has-no-date", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/grid/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/grid.json", "csv": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/grid.csv", "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/", "story": { "headline": "The Guarantee Has No Date", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-guarantee-has-no-date/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/stories/the-guarantee-has-no-date.json" }, "question": "How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?", "license": "DeepStack, https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/grid/; quotations under fair use, clipped to 250 characters; cite the canonical URL", "clip": 250, "count": 20, "claims": 37, "columns": [ { "id": "main", "question": "How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-guarantee-has-no-date/" } ], "rows": [ { "name": "Michael Burry", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-lease-is-already-debt", "label": "The lease is already debt", "claims": [ { "claim": "Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/capital-cycle-iq-and-the-forensic" }, { "claim": "Because purpose-built data centers with specialized power, cooling and racks lack a deep resale or sublease market (unlike office space), when data-center capacity is not needed it will be written down, as illustrated by Meta's 2022 office and…", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Steve Eisman", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-lease-is-already-debt", "label": "The lease is already debt", "claims": [ { "claim": "Steve Eisman supports Jason's dilution worry with figures: Meta's quarterly cash flow was $785 million, Microsoft's was about $19 billion but down roughly 25% year over year, and Amazon's trailing-twelve-month cash flow was negative.", "date": "2026-08-17", "url": null }, { "claim": "Hyperscalers including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have spent over a trillion dollars in capital expenditure on GPUs, largely to capture revenue from OpenAI and Anthropic, which they themselves continue to fund, creating a closed loop where…", "date": "2026-09-09", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "The Bear Cave", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/the-bear-cave/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-lease-is-already-debt", "label": "The lease is already debt", "claims": [ { "claim": "The relayed Bank OZK argument holds that the weakest construction projects must find genuine buyers or long-term lenders before sponsor support and property values fail.", "date": "2026-07-26", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Scott Galloway", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/scott-galloway/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-lease-is-already-debt", "label": "The lease is already debt", "claims": [ { "claim": "Investors are not paying sufficient attention to off-balance-sheet obligations that underlie Big Tech's artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.", "date": "2026-07-27", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Harley Bassman", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/harley-bassman/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "Anthropic itself is not borrowing the money; it is the hyperscalers (he names Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle) who are borrowing to use Anthropic's products, so if Anthropic were to go bust, that would be an equity problem rather than a…", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.macrovoices.com/1550-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust" }, { "claim": "He thinks higher rates could result from hyperscaler borrowing, but most hyperscalers have underlying cash-generating businesses that could cover the cost of the debt, and unless there is a major breakup of these companies, they should be able to…", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.macrovoices.com/1550-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Haim Zaltzman", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/haim-zaltzman/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "The presence of guarantees and credit support in the market means that clearing the market, particularly at this size and speed, probably requires it, just as wrappers, insurance or guarantees get car and airplane deals done faster and at better…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BLM6876553816.mp3" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Weitz Investment Management", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/weitz-investment-management/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "Microsoft is viewed as a great business with strong cash flows, intelligent capital allocation, and massive intellectual property that existed before the AI boom, and is believed to be reasonably priced with the financial strength to withstand…", "date": null, "url": null }, { "claim": "Risks to Microsoft include premature capital spending on AI, delays in deploying data centers postponing profits, and the possibility that early enthusiasm for AI is not shared by the broader population.", "date": null, "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Quanta 72", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/quanta-72/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "On the same day the spread closed at 2.80%, Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl Capital, developer of the Project Jupiter Stargate campus, covering potential cost increases and letting Oracle delay payments if the campus misses its 2028…", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": "https://quanta72.substack.com/p/q72-brief-the-chips-are-underwater" }, { "claim": "The current AI-related selloff is not evidence that AI itself has failed, but a moment where investors are demanding proof that the infrastructure buildout converts into proportional revenue.", "date": "2026-06-28", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Gaetano", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/gaetano/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "What matters for hyperscaler investment is the relationship between earnings growth and the capital required to produce it rather than when capex peaks; Meta in 2023 illustrates the cash-flow math, with operating cash flow going from $50.5B to…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/if-ai-slows-down-heres-where-i-still" }, { "claim": "The hyperscaler thesis is that AI makes businesses they already own more valuable, that owning the customer relationship makes them less dependent on predicting which model wins, and that broad agent usage creates recurring compute demand, while…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/if-ai-slows-down-heres-where-i-still" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Oguz Erkan", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/oguz-erkan/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "Neocloud contracts are pay-or-take and leave Meta little flexibility once committed, while internal data center deployment can be delayed or cancelled; even in the worst case committed capacity is unlikely to exceed internal consumption long term…", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/meta-deep-dive-opportunity-or-a-trap" }, { "claim": "If AI compute demand holds and Meta monetizes roughly 5 GW of projected 2030 excess capacity at an assumed blended $20 billion per GW, Oguz Erkan estimates $100 billion incremental revenue and $20-$30 billion net income at assumed 20-30% net…", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/meta-deep-dive-opportunity-or-a-trap" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Harris Associates Oakmark", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/harris-associates-oakmark/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-cash-flows-cover-it", "label": "The cash flows cover it", "claims": [ { "claim": "The portfolio is positioned in bonds of highly profitable hyperscaler technology companies (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, SpaceX), taking advantage of wider spreads and lower leverage compared to the broader investment-grade market.", "date": null, "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/harris-associates-oakmark-q3-2026-fscl_document_2QRD4GKW375" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "Kris has always said that if one pin falls among the AI companies many others would follow; they mostly thought of OpenAI, but consider Oracle a weak link in the chain as well.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-first-ai-crack" }, { "claim": "Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, the New Mexico AI data center tied to the $400 billion Stargate project it started with OpenAI, SoftBank, Nvidia and other partners, and Kris hopes this is in hindsight not the first crack.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-first-ai-crack" } ] }, { "question": "main", "side": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "claims": [ { "claim": "Kris repeats a long-held view that one should not expect the AI bubble to burst simply because it is a bubble; technological revolutions typically skip efficiency first and overspend, and the current data-center build-out assumes linear capacity…", "date": "2026-06-28", "url": null }, { "claim": "Kris argues that the widespread professional view of an AI/chip bubble is wrong, because infrastructure companies have multi-year supply contracts and chipmakers like Micron and Nvidia cannot currently produce enough chips to satisfy demand.", "date": "2026-08-24", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "AI-related borrowers are paying materially more for financing across multiple instrument types: CleanSpark paid about 175bps more than the average BB issuer versus similar IG-tenant financings that cleared below 6% earlier this year…", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits" }, { "claim": "SoftBank was able to borrow $11bn at record yields to fund its OpenAI stake, the 4th largest junk bond deal on record, and the market absorbed it without much trouble, showing that borrowers who can use the money to earn a new source of return can…", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": null } ] }, { "question": "main", "side": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "claims": [ { "claim": "Because data center project-finance paper is quoted off the tenant's curve plus a premium for structure, tenor and complexity, it widens mechanically when the tenant's curve widens on supply even if nothing about the project has changed; the…", "date": "2026-07-26", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-repriced-not-differentiated" }, { "claim": "The line between AI borrowers who can keep paying up and borrowers who are squeezed follows cash flow and financing options more than sector: a borrower with a strategic counterparty (like Meta or Alphabet), a public stock, and lenders competing…", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/jeremie-eliahou-ontiveros/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic face a financing constraint because they are not investment grade and much of data center build-out requires capital-intensive, upfront CapEx they cannot afford, which slows their ambition to be more vertically…", "date": "2026-07-09", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "Unlike Amazon, Google and Microsoft, which had strong free cash flow, strong balance sheets and little or no debt pre-AI era letting them own their datacenters and equipment, Oracle entered the AI era already carrying dozens of billions in debt…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Ed Elson", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ed-elson/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "Hyperscalers have accumulated off-balance-sheet debt that funds the AI buildout and should be a focus for investors.", "date": "2026-07-28", "url": null }, { "claim": "The refusal to disclose real AI revenue, with only an easily manipulated ARR figure from Amazon and anecdotes from the rest, is itself a bad sign about the strength of the existing AI businesses.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Nick Nemeth", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/nick-nemeth/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "The NAIC's rating-challenge power is real but requires a gap of at least three notches, regulatory review and procedural protections and is expected to be used selectively in exceptional cases, so having the power does not mean anyone has checked…", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Geo Chen", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/geo-chen/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "the-weak-link-pays-first", "label": "The weak link pays first", "claims": [ { "claim": "The market conversation is shifting from token maximization toward token optimization and questioning the return on investment of enterprise AI spending.", "date": "2026-07-14", "url": null }, { "claim": "With SpaceX and Google issuance, Meta considering more equity, and confidential IPO filings from both leading labs, it is plausible that markets absorb trillions of dollars of AI-themed equity supply over the next year, and since price is a…", "date": "2026-06-23", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Torsten Slok", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "claims": [ { "claim": "A cycle that builds at 0.85 percentage points a year can unwind at a similar pace, and that pace of unwind, rather than the buildout itself, is the macro risk if AI demand disappoints.", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": null }, { "claim": "Hyperscaler credit spreads are widening as the AI buildout is increasingly funded with debt rather than organic free cash flow, and as issuance surges the question is whether the all-in yield climbs to a level where the marginal data-center dollar…", "date": "2026-07-29", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Dylan Patel", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/dylan-patel/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "claims": [ { "claim": "Because all compute has to be financed and most compute is contracted well before it is built, players like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and SpaceX that can build without first finding a customer control the situation, whereas a smaller cloud must…", "date": "2026-08-25", "url": null }, { "claim": "He thinks Meta, trading at roughly $1.5 trillion, is silly and worth way more than that in a logical sense, given its cash flows, the infrastructure it is hoarding, and the compute it will be able to sell at high dollar-per-watt rates, either via…", "date": "2026-08-25", "url": null } ] } ] } ] }