{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T01:47:05Z",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "part": 8,
  "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/",
  "card": "https://deepstack.ltd/embed/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/card.svg",
  "story": {
    "headline": "AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity",
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/",
    "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral.json"
  },
  "question": "Who writes the checks for the buildout?",
  "call": {
    "tone": "bear",
    "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
    "stance": "Lenders are mispricing scarcity",
    "line": "Lenders are right to finance capacity and wrong to assume it stays scarce. Scarcity is a season; debt is a contract.",
    "conviction": 4,
    "convictionLabel": "High",
    "actions": [
      "Haircut any loan secured by compute scarcity: the collateral decays as supply catches up.",
      "Measure cash flow against the $2 trillion it needs, from about $600 billion today, every quarter.",
      "Count the $2.7 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments as leverage, because creditors will."
    ],
    "flips": [
      "September-quarter cash flow moves visibly toward $2 trillion.",
      "The first Blackwell renewal holds its price without new guarantees."
    ],
    "side": "The cash has to triple",
    "against": {
      "name": "Kris",
      "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/",
      "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026",
      "access": "paid",
      "answers": "Daniel Romero",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence"
    },
    "version": 2,
    "updatedOn": "2026-10-09",
    "history": [
      {
        "version": 1,
        "date": "2026-09-29",
        "stance": "Lenders are mispricing scarcity",
        "tone": "bear",
        "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
        "conviction": 4,
        "convictionLabel": "High",
        "line": "Lenders are right to finance capacity and wrong to assume it stays scarce. Scarcity is a season; debt is a contract.",
        "reason": "First call, as published with the story. The conviction, the actions and the flips were set down for the site on October 7, 2026.",
        "by": "DeepStack"
      },
      {
        "version": 2,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "stance": "Lenders are mispricing scarcity",
        "tone": "bear",
        "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
        "conviction": 4,
        "convictionLabel": "High",
        "line": "Lenders are right to finance capacity and wrong to assume it stays scarce. Scarcity is a season; debt is a contract.",
        "side": "The cash has to triple",
        "reason": "Side named by the owner.",
        "by": "Marco Cauduro"
      }
    ],
    "nextTest": {
      "id": "p08-t01",
      "part": 8,
      "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral",
      "when": "Oct 29",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 29, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-10T17:40:22Z",
      "callProbability": 80,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-11T19:37:45Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "story",
        "ref": "watchlist[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Sum the net cash from operating activities each of the four states for the September quarter and compare it with the same sum for the June quarter. The answer is yes if the September sum is higher; no if it is equal or lower. Whether maintenance capital spending or shorter server lives entered the accounting is DeepStack's reading from the same filings and goes in the Result, not in the answer.",
        "question": "Did the combined net cash from operating activities of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 exceed their combined figure for the quarter ended June 30, 2026?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, the four companies' earnings releases (Form 8-K) and quarterly reports (Form 10-Q)",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If any of the four has not reported by November 7, 2026, or restates its June quarter, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 2,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Marco Cauduro"
          },
          {
            "version": 2,
            "date": "2026-10-12",
            "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.",
            "by": "Marco Cauduro"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either"
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p08-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch",
      "resultUrl": null
    },
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#verdict"
  },
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "cash-has-to-triple",
      "label": "The cash has to triple",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Torsten Slok",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
          "claim": "The tech silo is betting on a future in which demand for AI and tech services explodes, while the silos covering the companies that would pay for those services see a much more modest outlook, and both cannot be right at the same time.",
          "date": "2026-09-29",
          "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/tech-trillion-dollar-internal-inconsistency",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Torsten Slok",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/torsten-slok/",
          "claim": "In S&P 500 Q2 earnings season data, AI adoption keeps broadening: 69% of companies now point to a live deployment, up from 64% last quarter.",
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-who-is-deploying-ai-to-who-can-prove-the-roi",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Burry",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
          "claim": "Alibaba's shift to financing an AI data center buildout through share issuance is a demerit against the investment thesis, as the buildout may be 'practically interminable' without a clear productive path.",
          "date": "2026-09-04",
          "url": null,
          "access": "licensed"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Burry",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
          "claim": "Most analysts covering the former software/social-media/AdTech companies now recast as hyperscalers have never had to model maintenance capital expenditure, and most still are not doing it, or not doing it well.",
          "date": "2026-09-19",
          "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Daniel Romero",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
          "claim": "Using a model assuming equipment costs rise to $100 billion per GW by 2030, five-year equipment cost recovery, 25-year site cost recovery, a 15% annual return on invested capital, and a 65% cloud operating margin, AI labs would need to reach $6.8…",
          "date": "2026-09-21",
          "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-math-behind-the-next-ai-rally",
          "access": "paid"
        },
        {
          "name": "Daniel Romero",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
          "claim": "Daniel Romero states they are not arguing the buildout is unsustainable, but that one-year compute paybacks will probably become the exception rather than a baseline assumption, possibly dependent on specific timing and shortages, and that 2026…",
          "date": "2026-09-21",
          "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-math-behind-the-next-ai-rally",
          "access": "paid"
        }
      ],
      "against": {
        "name": "Kris",
        "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/",
        "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…",
        "date": "2026-09-16",
        "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026",
        "access": "paid",
        "answers": "Daniel Romero",
        "relation": "contradicts",
        "dimension": "evidence"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "spending-pays",
      "label": "The spending pays",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Market Sentiment",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/market-sentiment/",
          "claim": "Based on their capex sustainability model, Market Sentiment estimates that next year's ~$1.2T+ of AI capex should drive ~$2T of incremental revenue, which they say will only be a fraction of the total incremental revenue AI generates as a business…",
          "date": "2026-09-17",
          "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-next-great-ai-trade-is-everything",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Market Sentiment",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/market-sentiment/",
          "claim": "Aggressive capital spending tends to be suboptimal because after an initial euphoric rise in stock prices tied to rising capex, investors realize they overpaid for the underlying inputs, from land to memory to fiber-optic cables.",
          "date": "2026-09-17",
          "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-next-great-ai-trade-is-everything",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Aurelion Research",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/aurelion-research/",
          "claim": "The customer base is broadening beyond a concentrated set of hyperscalers to enterprises, AI-native companies and cloud providers, with AI-related infrastructure commitments expected to exceed $3.1 trillion, making the next phase of demand less…",
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Aurelion Research",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/aurelion-research/",
          "claim": "Hyperscaler capex is durable rather than at risk of a sudden cut, because the largest spenders keep reaffirming the necessity of AI investment and their EBITDA and EBIT margins are still rising, giving them capacity to keep funding it.",
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia",
          "access": "public"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kris",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/",
          "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…",
          "date": "2026-09-16",
          "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026",
          "access": "paid"
        }
      ],
      "against": {
        "name": "DeepValue Capital",
        "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/deepvalue-capital/",
        "claim": "Apollo argues the hyperscaler credit story rests on a single consensus assumption that operating cash flow triples from $600 billion to $2 trillion, and that if this does not happen, the AI trade could weaken with credit spreads widening, capex…",
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "url": "https://deepvaluecapitalbykyler.substack.com/p/the-data-is-clear-bargains-are-out",
        "access": "paid",
        "answers": "Market Sentiment",
        "relation": "contradicts",
        "dimension": "evidence"
      }
    }
  ],
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "cash-or-loop",
      "question": "Cash, or a loop?",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#question-cash-or-loop",
      "sides": [
        {
          "id": "closed-loop",
          "label": "A closed loop",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Ed Zitron",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ed-zitron/",
              "claim": "Over $1T of GPUs bought to win two unprofitable labs, the source of about 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue.",
              "date": null,
              "url": null,
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "George Noble",
              "entity": null,
              "claim": "Nvidia now gives a year to pay.",
              "date": null,
              "url": null,
              "access": "public"
            }
          ],
          "against": null
        },
        {
          "id": "real-cash",
          "label": "Real cash, real use",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Gaetano",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/gaetano/",
              "claim": "Today's biggest AI infrastructure spenders are large, highly profitable companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta, with Microsoft generating more than $55 billion of operating cash flow in its latest quarter and Alphabet roughly $39…",
              "date": "2026-09-07",
              "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/fiber-optics-boom-bust-how-similar",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Gaetano",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/gaetano/",
              "claim": "Moving beyond the hyperscalers, financing becomes messier: neoclouds are borrowing enormous amounts of money, AI labs need compute without necessarily having the cash flow to fund it, NVIDIA is investing throughout the ecosystem, infrastructure…",
              "date": "2026-09-07",
              "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/fiber-optics-boom-bust-how-similar",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Ren",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
              "claim": "In the August 14, 2026 edition, the author argues: Ren warns the whole theme is AI with more leverage and less liquidity: every fund is under four months old with no track record, the largest is run by a first-time adviser, in a capex pause the…",
              "date": "2026-07-27",
              "url": null,
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "Ren",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
              "claim": "AGI is not the investable trade; compute is, because Astra adds a second, inference-driven demand chain (more capable models, more agents, more delegated work, longer inference trajectories, more tokens, more compute) alongside the existing…",
              "date": "2026-09-15",
              "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/openai-astra-has-agi-arrived",
              "access": "paid"
            }
          ],
          "against": {
            "name": "Geo Chen",
            "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/geo-chen/",
            "claim": "Of the bearish scenarios they warned about when exiting their AI portfolio in June, only the decline in token costs from open and Chinese models gaining market share has come to pass, while AI revenues, capex spending, and bottlenecks remain bullish.",
            "date": "2026-09-08",
            "url": "https://www.fidenzamacro.com/p/answers-to-ama-questions-part-1",
            "access": "public",
            "answers": "Ren",
            "relation": "contradicts",
            "dimension": "evidence"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "what-lenders-hold",
      "question": "What are the lenders holding?",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#question-what-lenders-hold",
      "sides": [
        {
          "id": "scarcity-as-collateral",
          "label": "Scarcity as collateral",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
              "claim": "Contracted GPU lease rates and second-hand prices have held up even for chips launched 3 to 6 years ago, and compute is now about 60% of hyperscaler capex, so the scarce, short-lived asset is a growing share of what is being financed.",
              "date": "2026-09-13",
              "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes",
              "access": "public"
            },
            {
              "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
              "claim": "The entire AI buildout has been constrained by scarcity of power, GPUs, transformers, interconnection, skilled labor and ready-to-use capacity, and this scarcity has propped up the economics of everything financed against it by holding up lease…",
              "date": "2026-09-13",
              "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes",
              "access": "public"
            }
          ],
          "against": null
        },
        {
          "id": "guarantees-not-faith",
          "label": "Guarantees, not faith",
          "voices": [
            {
              "name": "Michael Burry",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
              "claim": "Across the five hyperscalers, uncommenced, non-cancelable data-center leases and purchase commitments together total roughly $2.7 trillion in off-balance-sheet contractual commitments as of the disclosed filing dates, with the total potentially…",
              "date": "2026-09-19",
              "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Michael Burry",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
              "claim": "Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…",
              "date": "2026-09-24",
              "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/capital-cycle-iq-and-the-forensic",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Steve Eisman",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/",
              "claim": "George Noble's bear case for AI rests on the question of actual return on investment; he argues that Nvidia announcing massive funding packages just to keep customers like OpenAI able to keep buying chips shows the money underneath the boom is not…",
              "date": "2026-09-21",
              "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/stock-picking-in-difficult-times",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Steve Eisman",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/",
              "claim": "George Noble cites an estimate from Julien Garran at MacroStrategy putting AI malinvestment at roughly twenty four times what was seen during the dot com bubble.",
              "date": "2026-09-21",
              "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/stock-picking-in-difficult-times",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Kakashii",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/",
              "claim": "Oracle's free cash flow was positive every year from FY2018 to FY2024, then turned slightly negative in FY2025 (-0.39B), dropped to -23.69B in FY2026 on 55.66B of cash capex, and sits at -28.72B on a trailing twelve months basis through Q1 FY2027…",
              "date": "2026-09-24",
              "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a",
              "access": "paid"
            },
            {
              "name": "Kakashii",
              "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/",
              "claim": "Oracle's record Q1 operating cash flow of 23.103B (up 184% YoY) is largely explained by 11.363B of customer prepayments with a significant financing component; excluding that prepayment, operating cash flow would be only about 11.740B (up a more…",
              "date": "2026-09-24",
              "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a",
              "access": "paid"
            }
          ],
          "against": null
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "crossings": [
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "Gaetano",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Steve Eisman contradicts Gaetano on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Steve Eisman",
      "to": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Steve Eisman qualifies JunkBondInvestor on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "refutes",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Torsten Slok refutes Michael Burry on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Torsten Slok contradicts Aurelion Research on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Gaetano qualifies Torsten Slok on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "Kris",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies Kris on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "to": "Market Sentiment",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "JunkBondInvestor contradicts Market Sentiment on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies Aurelion Research on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Kakashii",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Kakashii qualifies Aurelion Research on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies Michael Burry on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "Aurelion Research",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Daniel Romero contradicts Aurelion Research on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Ren",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies Ren on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Gaetano qualifies JunkBondInvestor on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "Steve Eisman",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Gaetano contradicts Steve Eisman on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "Michael Burry",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Gaetano qualifies Michael Burry on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Kris",
      "to": "Daniel Romero",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Kris contradicts Daniel Romero on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Torsten Slok",
      "to": "Kakashii",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "premise",
      "note": "Torsten Slok qualifies Kakashii on premise."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies Torsten Slok on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "Market Sentiment",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Gaetano qualifies Market Sentiment on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "mechanism",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies Torsten Slok on mechanism."
    },
    {
      "from": "Gaetano",
      "to": "Daniel Romero",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Gaetano qualifies Daniel Romero on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "Daniel Romero",
      "to": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies JunkBondInvestor on condition."
    },
    {
      "from": "Michael Burry",
      "to": "Gaetano",
      "relation": "contradicts",
      "dimension": "evidence",
      "note": "Michael Burry contradicts Gaetano on evidence."
    },
    {
      "from": "JunkBondInvestor",
      "to": "Torsten Slok",
      "relation": "qualifies",
      "dimension": "condition",
      "note": "JunkBondInvestor qualifies Torsten Slok on condition."
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    {
      "label": "The price rises with distance from the hyperscaler",
      "text": "The core: investment-grade spread 83bp, bank default swaps flat near 40bp. One step out: guaranteed debt pays 100 to 150bp over the guarantor. The edge: Oracle CDS at a record, CCC spread 1,146bp."
    }
  ],
  "settles": [
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Oct 29",
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "event": "September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Nov 23",
      "date": "2026-11-23",
      "event": "New Mexico rules on the fuel-cell permit; approval supports schedule, denial turns Oracle’s notice into a warning.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Feb 1, 2027",
      "date": "2027-02-01",
      "event": "Pipeline in-service date tests whether Project Jupiter can secure fuel for its planned campus.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "First Blackwell renewal",
      "date": null,
      "event": "Contract repricing shows whether scarce compute retains value or lenders face faster obsolescence.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch"
    },
    {
      "id": null,
      "when": "Fluidstack terms",
      "date": null,
      "event": "Government-loan terms reveal the price Washington assigns to financing bottlenecks it wants to remove.",
      "status": "pending",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/#watch"
    }
  ],
  "grid": {
    "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/grid/",
    "csv": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/grid.csv",
    "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/sides/the-scarcity-is-the-collateral/grid.json"
  },
  "editorial": null
}