Can the AI trade survive · settles Dec 31 · 69 days
The 10-year: whether FRED's daily series closes at 5.50% or higher on any business day from October 16 through December 31, 2026, after a 5.31% high on October 5.
How it settlesRead every daily observation of DGS10 dated October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026, as FRED shows them on January 5, 2027; the days read are the days for which FRED reports a value. Source: FRED, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The exact question
Does the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) close at 5.50% or higher on any day from October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026 for which FRED reports a value?
The boom pays the rate
Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
The two shocks compound
Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
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