The money behind the machine.

The capital, the chips, the power and the people betting on all three.

DeepStack

Next on The DocketOct 21, 2026Meta reports its September quarter; users, transaction volume and fees would show whether…
Vol. I · No. 17 Independent analysis of the AI economy

The money behind the machine.

Start here

We take a side on the questions that move AI money, put a number and a date on it, and score ourselves in public.

Investigations, interactive data and dated tests of our conclusions.

Read the current investigation Explore the data See the Calls

The tape · 17

The Call this week · Part 17

How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?

SplitThe risk off the books is still rising.

Leases pile up faster than they start, Alphabet's backstops cost more to carry, and Oracle's cash leans on its customers' prepayments.

Next testOracle's second quarter: whether customer prepayments with a financing component pass 40% of…Call · 70% yes

Read the Call All 17 Calls

Next testMeta reports its September quarter; users, transaction volume and fees would show whether downloads are…Call · 55% yes Latest resultCall heldAnswer: noJapan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell: $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, $1,068.3B at end-August 2026.

35 dated tests with rules written before the date · 40 more questions on the Docket · 2 settled · no hit rate until tenWe score claims, not people.

The Weekly

Every Saturday: the investigation of the week, the numbers that moved and the dates that will settle the argument. Free.

Read the latest edition

The Buildout · Part 17Capital and credit

The Guarantee Has No Date

By mid-2026 the five largest builders of AI data centers had signed $1.12 trillion of leases not yet begun, by DeepStack's sum of their filings, 69% more than Moody's counted at the end of 2025. The leases reach the balance sheet on a schedule. The guarantees beside them have no date.

Capital and credit · How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away? · Next test Dec 14, 2026

By DeepStack10 min read

The Docket

The dates that will settle the argument.

Every DeepStack story ends with a test. These are the next ones on the calendar, and what each result would tell us.

  1. Meta reports its September quarter; users, transaction volume and fees would show whether downloads are becoming a business.

    Part 09: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.

  2. Alphabet's September quarter: whether capital spending takes 80 cents or more of each dollar of operating cash, after 49.5 cents a year earlier and 95.0 cents in the first half of 2026.

    Part 14: The Cash Arrives Unevenly

  3. Alphabet and Microsoft report, and the Fed decides the same day: whether the TPU system sales inside Google Cloud's backlog get a size, and whether Cloud growth holds near the second quarter's 82% without them.

    Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price

  4. Microsoft reports: the share of backlog due within twelve months, 30% last quarter, and whether the near book's growth closes on the far book's 113%; at Alphabet, whether the TPU contracts inside cloud backlog get a size; at Meta, which reports October 21, whether the $10.8 billion of restricted cash stays restricted.

    Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter

  5. Microsoft and Alphabet report October 28, after Meta on October 21, and Amazon follows on October 29; depreciation, server lives and 29.5% growth will test the earnings denominator.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator

  6. The Fed meets; another hike would support Klein’s inflation reading, while no move would strengthen Paulson’s case that September was a mistake.

    Part 07: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

  7. September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.

    Part 08: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity

The Data Desk

Run the numbers yourself.

23 interactive charts built from the figures in The Buildout. Move the yield, cut the earnings, pick your entry point. The arithmetic is ours, and every source is named.

Data Desk · Part 17Markets

One obligation, five totals

The builders' commitments off the balance sheet, as five counts put them, each with a different date, instrument or base. Pick the yardstick and see how far each count runs ahead of a year of the builders' own cash.

As of Sep 29, 2026 · with each filing season · published Sep 29, 2026 · read Oct 12, 2026 · reported · next release Feb 16, 2027

What the chart says. Five published totals for one obligation run from $0.66 trillion to $3.5 trillion because each changes the date, the instrument or the base. Against a year of the five builders' operating cash, $0.71 trillion, the narrowest reading is 1.6 times and the widest 4.9. The guarantee has no date, and the counts do not agree on what it covers.

Source: Moody's via Fortune (Feb 25, 2026); company 10-K and 10-Q filings at June 30 and Aug 31, 2026, DeepStack's sum; UBS Asset Management (Sep 29, 2026); Michael Burry (Sep 19, 2026). Operating cash flow: the four quarters to mid-2026 of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle, SEC EDGAR, DeepStack's sum. Multiples are DeepStack arithmetic.

Show the data table
MeasureValueSource
Operating cash flow, five builders, four quarters$0.71TSEC filings, DeepStack sum
Leases not yet begun, end of 2025$0.66TMoody's via Fortune
Leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026$1.12TDeepStack sum of the filings
Leases, August 2026$1.25TUBS Asset Management
Leases and purchase commitments, September$2.70TMichael Burry
Commitments net of cash$3.50TUBS Asset Management
More in the Data Desk

Measure everything against

  1. Operating cash flow, five builders, four quartersSEC filings, DeepStack sum$0.71Tyardstick
  2. Leases not yet begun, end of 2025Moody's via Fortune$0.66T0.9× cash flow, a year
  3. Leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026DeepStack sum of the filings$1.12T1.6× cash flow, a year
  4. Leases, August 2026UBS Asset Management$1.25T1.8× cash flow, a year
  5. Leases and purchase commitments, SeptemberMichael Burry$2.70T3.8× cash flow, a year
  6. Commitments net of cashUBS Asset Management$3.50T4.9× cash flow, a year

Measured against operating cash flow, five builders, four quarters ($0.71T), leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026 are 1.6 times, and leases and purchase commitments, september are 3.8 times that yardstick.

As ofrefreshed daily at build

  • 10-year Treasury5.12%−9 bp this week
  • 2-year Treasury4.79%0 bp this week
  • 10-year real yield2.77%−11 bp this week
  • S&P 5007,713−1.2% this week
  • Brent crude$126.55+0.4% this week
  • CPI, Sep3.7%Core 2.6%
Thresholds crossed: 5 of 5

Data: U.S. Treasury; S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED; EIA via FRED; BLS

Editorial Notes

DeepStack doesn’t do neutral.

Ten notes on what we cover, how we argue and what we owe you. Read them once. Hold us to them every time.

01

Every AI story is a financing story.

Models make headlines. Balance sheets make cycles. A product launch tells you what a company can do; a $35 billion debt tranche tells you what it has promised. We start where the money moves, in capital spending, credit, contracts and power, because that is where this cycle will be decided, and where it will break, if it breaks.

07

Steelman, then strike.

We give the other side its strongest form, attributed by name to the investor, analyst or company who makes it. Then we say where the evidence points. A piece that refuses to conclude is not balanced. It is unfinished.

09

Every verdict names its test.

We say what would prove us wrong and when we expect to find out. Those dates go on The Docket. When a test arrives, we report the result, especially when it goes against us.

Read all 10 Editorial Notes

The series

The Buildout

A running series of investigations into who pays for the AI build-out, who profits, and what breaks first. Read it in order, or start with the question that keeps you up at night.

  13. The Buildout · Part 13Energy and infrastructure

    The Ratepayer Pays First

    Energy and infrastructure

    By DeepStack10 min read