Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook of January 2027 put the average Brent crude oil spot price for the fourth quarter of 2026 above $105 a barrel?
Read the fourth-quarter 2026 Brent spot average, in dollars per barrel, from the energy prices table of the January 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook, where the quarter is history.
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
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