Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate (FRED series T5YIFR) average more than 2.60% over the days of March 2027 for which FRED reports a value?
Average the daily observations of T5YIFR dated March 1 through March 31, 2027 for which FRED reports a value, as FRED shows them on April 1, 2027, rounded to two decimals.
Source: FRED, 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
Put your number from 1 to 99 in the app; the readers, the Call and the machines appear only after you save.