Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close at or below 90% of its highest closing share price since October 16, 2026, on any business day from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027?
Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027 in the plan's share price history.
Source: Thrift Savings Plan, share price history of the C Fund (daily closing share prices, tsp.gov)
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
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