CLOUD · T07
Do the orders turn into profit?
Ciena carries a $10 billion order book, Microsoft's far backlog grew three times as fast as its near one, and Nvidia now waits a year to be paid. The orders will ship. DeepStack expects the profit to arrive later, and the third-quarter reports to show the gap.
Questions 5Open 5Call held 0Call missed 0
Funded, not forecast
Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
13 voices
A backlog is a promise
Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
12 voices
The questions
Settles Oct 28open
Microsoft reports: the share of backlog due within twelve months, 30% last quarter, and whether the near book's growth closes on the far book's 113%; at Alphabet, whether the TPU contracts inside cloud backlog get a size; at Meta, which reports October 21, whether the $10.8 billion of restricted cash stays restricted.
Settles Nov 18open
Nvidia reports: days sales outstanding after the move to a year of payment terms, whether five customers still carry 70% of receivables, and whether guidance near 70% moves toward the unconstrained figure as supply arrives.
Settles Dec 14open
Oracle reports: whether new remaining performance obligations keep arriving prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, the condition for a capex peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028.
Settles Dec 1open
Perma-Pipe's third quarter: 40% to 50% of the $142.3 million backlog converting, $57 million to $71 million, with gross margin moving toward 30% and no second receivable write-off.
No date yetopen
Ciena's $10 billion backlog into shipments, Lumentum's path to $11.1 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue and Coherent's statement that it sells everything it can make, each measured against the margin the company targets.