Resolved October 10, 2026 · The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither?

Did the investment-grade corporate bond spread (ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, FRED series BAMLC0A0CM) read tighter on October 2, 2026, the end of the four weeks after Labor Day, than its August 2026 average?

No. Confirmed: the investment-grade spread ended the window five basis points wider than August's average, as the Call expected.

The reading

The reading on October 2, 2026 (the last observation on or before that day) against the mean of the daily observations from August 1 to August 31, 2026: confirmed if it is 3 basis points or more below the August mean, refuted if it is 3 basis points or more above it. The split between AI-related issuers and the rest of the market, as the press reported it on September 22, 2026, is read into the Result as evidence and does not decide the test.

Source: FRED, ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread (BAMLC0A0CM) · The Result

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