What we said
The Call as it stood on September 8, 2026.
SkepticalBearish on the credit
The machines will earn. The credit stack is where this buildout breaks first.
The test. The next $50B-$60B issuance will show whether new-issue concessions keep widening or start to normalize.
p03-t04 · dated · On the Docket
The rule
How DeepStack settles a question: the specification.
- Question
- Did the investment-grade corporate bond spread (ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, FRED series BAMLC0A0CM) read tighter on October 2, 2026, the end of the four weeks after Labor Day, than its August 2026 average?
- Source
- FRED, ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
- Rule
- The reading on October 2, 2026 (the last observation on or before that day) against the mean of the daily observations from August 1 to August 31, 2026: confirmed if it is 3 basis points or more below the August mean, refuted if it is 3 basis points or more above it. The split between AI-related issuers and the rest of the market, as the press reported it on September 22, 2026, is read into the Result as evidence and does not decide the test.
- If the source is late, revised or silent
- A series that is late, revised after the reading or silent for the window is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner, and the Result says what was read, what was missing and the next step. A difference inside the 3 basis point band is inconclusive and closes the test.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
What happened
Confirmed: the investment-grade spread ended the window five basis points wider than August's average, as the Call expected.
Call heldAnswer: no The result is the one the Call expected. Resolved , approved by Marco Cauduro.
The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread read 0.85% on October 2, 2026, the end of the four weeks after Labor Day, against an average of 0.80% over August's 21 daily readings (FRED series BAMLC0A0CM). The difference is +0.05%, five basis points, outside the 3 basis point band the rule names, so the answer to the question is no: the market did not price the window tighter than August. That is the outcome the Call expected of the credit stack.
What the series does not show, the press did. On September 22 Reuters reported spreads on AI-related issuers near 115 basis points against 78 for the broader investment-grade market, Alphabet paying a large concession on its August sale, and Aon's $13.5 billion financing drawing $65 billion of orders with its 30-year tranche tightening 35 basis points. Concessions normalized away from the AI complex and stayed wide inside it. That split is evidence here, not the rule.
The Call of Part 03, bearish on the credit of the buildout, expected the spread to widen. It did, by five basis points.
- ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, average 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-31
- 0.80%
- FRED BAMLC0A0CM · Aug 31, 2026
- ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, reading less average
- +0.05%
- FRED BAMLC0A0CM · Oct 2, 2026
- Spreads on AI-related issuers against the broader investment-grade market, as Reuters reported on September 22, 2026
- about 115 basis points against 78
- Reuters, Corporate bond buyers get picky with flood of AI debt · Sep 22, 2026
What changes
The Call stands.
The DeepStack call. Conviction unchanged: a wider spread at the end of the window is what the Call expected of the credit stack.
The Call did not move: it stands at version 2, Bearish on the credit, conviction 4 of 5. Call history.