FIN · T06
How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?
By mid-2026 the five largest builders of AI data centers had signed $1.12 trillion of leases not yet begun, by DeepStack's sum of their filings, 69% more than Moody's counted at the end of 2025. The leases reach the balance sheet on a schedule. The guarantees beside them have no date.
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The lease is already debt
Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
6 voices
The cash flows cover it
The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
12 voices
The questions
Settles Feb 16open
Do the leases signed but not yet commenced that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta report as of December 31, 2026 in their Form 10-K for 2026, that Microsoft reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2026, and that Oracle reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, add up to more than $1.2 trillion?
Settles Feb 16open
Does Alphabet's Form 10-K for 2026 show a liability on its credit derivatives above 1.86% of their gross notional amount, both as of December 31, 2026?
Settles Dec 14open
For the six months ended November 30, 2026, does Oracle's increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component exceed 40% of its net cash provided by operating activities?
Settles Feb 26open
Does Meta's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2026 either consolidate the Hyperion joint venture in Louisiana or record a liability above zero for its residual value guarantees to that venture?