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Thirteen sectors of the AI economy. A lit sector has a thesis with questions; a dark one lights up when its first thesis arrives.
Semiconductors & Compute Silicon
2 theses7 questions
Who designs, makes and equips the logic chips that do AI compute.
Memory & Storage
No thesis yet
The memory and storage that feed the accelerators and hold the data.
Networking, Interconnect & Optics
No thesis yet
What moves data between chips, servers, racks and data centers.
Hyperscalers, Cloud & Compute Services
6 theses26 questions
pulsehouse 64readers 83machines 71
Who rents compute and runs models for others, and spends the capex.
Data Centers & Physical Infrastructure
No thesis yet
The buildings, land, racks, cooling and in-building electrical gear.
Power, Energy & Grid
2 theses8 questions
pulsehouse 75machines 82
The electricity that reaches the fence, who generates it, who moves it and who pays.
Materials, Industrial Supply Chain & Construction
No thesis yet
The physical inputs and the trades that build everything above.
Foundation Models & AI Intelligence
3 theses14 questions
pulsehouse 76readers 85machines 84
Who trains and serves the models, and the economics of doing it.
AI Software, Applications & Agents
1 theses5 questions
Who turns model output into software people and firms pay for.
Physical AI, Robotics & Autonomy
No thesis yet
AI that moves in the physical world, and the parts it is made of.
AI Security, Trust & Governance
No thesis yet
The spend on protecting, identifying and governing AI systems and their users.
AI Adoption, Productivity & Industry Transformation
No thesis yet
Where AI changes the costs and revenues of the rest of the economy.
AI Financing, Credit & Capital Structure
9 theses39 questions
pulsehouse 66machines 72
Who lends to, invests in and insures the buildout, and on what terms.
The pulse of a sector: the mean chance that the Call’s side wins over the sector’s open questions with a known side, read three ways (the house, the readers from five, the machines); it shows from two questions.
Semiconductors & Compute Silicon
Hyperscalers, Cloud & Compute Services
Is the marginal buyer of AI compute real?
Is the capex spending defense, or is the return not there?
Does the hardware hold its value?
Do the orders turn into profit?
Is AI revenue arriving fast enough for the biggest spenders to pay for their data centers out of their own cash?
How much of the money buying AI chips was lent, guaranteed or invested by the companies selling them?
Power, Energy & Grid
Foundation Models & AI Intelligence
AI Software, Applications & Agents
AI Financing, Credit & Capital Structure
Is the marginal buyer of AI compute real?
SpaceX after the IPO: exit liquidity, or the next ten-bagger?
The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither?
Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?
Who writes the checks for the buildout?
Does the hardware hold its value?
Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time?
How much of the money buying AI chips was lent, guaranteed or invested by the companies selling them?
How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?
The Buildout
- 17
The Guarantee Has No Date
- 16
The Seller Holds the Paper
- 15
Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.
- 14
The Cash Arrives Unevenly
- 13
The Ratepayer Pays First
- 12
The Model Is Not the Price
- 11
The Backlog Is Not the Quarter
- 10
The Bubble Is in the Denominator
- 09
Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.
- 08
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity
- 07
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.
- 06
Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.
- 05
OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business
- 04
AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill
- 03
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.
- 02
SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof
- 01
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.