Person
Longriver is named in 4 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 16: The Seller Holds the Paper. Argued in Part 1 (Voices that cross sides), Part 12 (The frontier is still paid), Part 14 (The buyers have not paid yet).
What Longriver argued
Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.
Part 14 · The buyers have not paid yetJul 20, 2026
He states it is equally possible that AI transforms business and society yet fails to earn an adequate return for the companies that built it, since revenue can arrive well before owner earnings if depreciation understates obsolescence or…
Part 12 · The frontier is still paidJul 20, 2026
Reported revenue acceleration at the two leading model companies — an annualised run-rate said to go from USD 1 billion at end-2024 to USD 9 billion at end-2025 to almost USD 50 billion in May this year at Anthropic, with a similar trajectory at…
Part 01 · Voices that cross sides
Long since 2025, and author of the bear case's most honest sentence.
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile. Who is on each side
In The Buildout
One line per story, from the story itself.
Part 16The loan is a bridge
Longriver Investment Partners Limited told clients on July 20 that Anthropic's reported annualized revenue went from about $1 billion at the end of 2024 to almost $50 billion in May 2026, evidence in its view that customers will pay for agentic work.
The Seller Holds the PaperPart 16Two labs carry the chain
Longriver's almost $50 billion in May had become about $65 billion by August, a figure that Tae Kim of Key Context wrote on August 21 the market treated as a disappointment; he called that an overreaction, since the growth rate was still extremely high.
The Seller Holds the PaperPart 14The buyers have not paid yet
Longriver Investment Partners warned in its July 20 letter that AI can transform business and still fail its builders, because revenue can arrive well before owner earnings.
The Cash Arrives UnevenlyPart 12Lede
Longriver Investment Partners Limited, in its July 20 letter, relayed an annualized run-rate at Anthropic of $1 billion at the end of 2024, $9 billion at the end of 2025 and almost $50 billion in May, as proof that customers pay for agentic work.
The Model Is Not the PricePart 12The filing sets the price
Longriver's run-rate was judged in direct contradiction with three managers of the same season.
The Model Is Not the PricePart 12Four run-rates, three dates
Longriver's Anthropic run-rate was almost $50 billion in May.
The Model Is Not the PricePart 01Backlog or bottleneck
Graham Rhodes of Longriver, whose fund has owned Nvidia since 2025, changes the unit of account.
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.Follow
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.