Play
0 day streak
Tonight · October 28, 2026
5 questions settle. Follow the night.
Today’s five
Five open questions a day; the app picks them when it loads.
Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer? Settles
Does the Fed funds target, upper bound (FRED series DFEDTARU) read higher on its first observation after October 28, 2026 than on its last observation before it?
value after date > value before date => hike
- Growth: yields are catching up Growth: yields are catching up
- Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35% Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%
Does the hardware hold its value? Settles
Did the combined depreciation and amortization of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow faster from the year-earlier quarter than their combined operating income?
Sum depreciation and amortization, and sum operating income, for the four companies for the September quarter of 2026 and of 2025, from each release or 10-Q.
- A model, not a price A model, not a price
- Still renting at January prices Still renting at January prices
Do the orders turn into profit? Settles
Did Microsoft's quarterly report for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 put the share of its remaining performance obligations expected to be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months at 30% or less?
Read the sentence in the 10-Q's revenue note that gives the percentage of revenue allocated to remaining performance obligations Microsoft expects to recognize over the next twelve months.
- Funded, not forecast Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
- A backlog is a promise Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
Does the frontier model still command a price? Settles
Did Alphabet, in its third-quarter 2026 results of October 28, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), state a size for the TPU system sales contracts inside Google Cloud's backlog?
The answer is yes if the release, the 10-Q or the call transcript gives a dollar amount, or a share of the Cloud backlog, for TPU system sales contracts or for the Anthropic contracts; no if the quarter is reported with no such figure.
- The frontier is still paid The dollars stay at the frontier: run-rates in the tens of billions, the hard work routed to closed models, distribution that outlives parity.
- Open weights set the price Open weights months behind the frontier take the volume at a fraction of the token price; a price cut with tenfold usage reads as a price war.
Did Alphabet's purchases of property and equipment for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 equal 80% or more of its net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarter?
Take the three-month figures from the statement of cash flows in Alphabet's earnings release; if the release gives only year-to-date figures, use the nine-month figure less the six-month figure from the Form 10-Q.
- The cash still covers it Cloud sales grow fast enough, and contracts arrive early enough, that the spenders' own cash carries the build and services the debt.
- The bill has moved to debt Capital spending now exceeds the cash the spenders earn; bonds, leases and commitments kept off the balance sheet fill the gap.
Who writes the checks for the buildout? Settles
Did the combined net cash from operating activities of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 exceed their combined figure for the quarter ended June 30, 2026?
Sum the net cash from operating activities each of the four states for the September quarter and compare it with the same sum for the June quarter.
- The cash has to triple The cash has to triple
- The spending pays The spending pays
Does the frontier model still command a price? Settles
Did Amazon, in its third-quarter 2026 results of October 29, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), disclose a customer or a group of customers at 10% or more of AWS revenue, or quantify Anthropic's share of AWS sales?
The answer is yes if the concentration note of the 10-Q, the release or the call names a customer or a group of customers at 10% or more of AWS revenue, or states Anthropic's share of AWS sales; no if the quarter is reported with no such disclosure.
- The frontier is still paid The dollars stay at the frontier: run-rates in the tens of billions, the hard work routed to closed models, distribution that outlives parity.
- Open weights set the price Open weights months behind the frontier take the volume at a fraction of the token price; a price cut with tenfold usage reads as a price war.
How fast do habits break? Settles
Did Booking Holdings report September-quarter room nights above the September quarter of 2025, with a direct-channel share of bookings no lower than the share it reported a year earlier?
Read room nights and the direct mix from the release and the call.
- Eighteen months, or less Eighteen months, or less
- Still a demo Still a demo
The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither? Settles
Did Nebius's September-quarter results, in the release, the shareholder letter or on the call, still price compute capacity of six months or less at a premium to its one-to-three-year contracts?
Read the price per megawatt (or per GPU-hour) Nebius gives for terms of six months or less and for one-to-three-year terms.
- 1999 capex plus 2008 credit read as the fuse
- The borrowing is rational read as the fuel
Did the combined purchases of property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 exceed their combined net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarter?
Read each company's statement of cash flows for the quarter; where a Form 10-Q gives only year-to-date figures, the quarter is the later cumulative figure less the earlier one from the same fiscal year (for Microsoft, the first quarter of its fiscal 2027).
- The cash still covers it Cloud sales grow fast enough, and contracts arrive early enough, that the spenders' own cash carries the build and services the debt.
- The bill has moved to debt Capital spending now exceeds the cash the spenders earn; bonds, leases and commitments kept off the balance sheet fill the gap.
How fast do habits break? Settles
Did Nike, in the materials published for its investor day of November 16 and 17, 2026, state a numerical operating-margin or gross-margin target for a fiscal year beyond fiscal 2027?
The answer is yes if the presentation, press release or webcast transcript on Nike's investor-relations site states a margin target with a number and a fiscal year beyond 2027; no otherwise.
- Eighteen months, or less Eighteen months, or less
- Still a demo Still a demo
Do the orders turn into profit? Settles
In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, is accounts receivable, net at quarter end, divided by the quarter's revenue and multiplied by 91, at or above 51.1 days?
DeepStack computes days sales outstanding from two figures the 10-Q prints: accounts receivable, net on the condensed consolidated balance sheet at October 25, 2026, and revenue on the condensed consolidated statement of income for the three months then ended, times the 91 days of the quarter, rounded to one decimal.
- Funded, not forecast Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
- A backlog is a promise Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
Does the frontier model still command a price? Settles
Did Nvidia, in its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results of November 18, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), name OpenAI or Anthropic as a customer at 10% or more of revenue, or state the two labs' share of its revenue?
The answer is yes if the concentration note of the 10-Q, the release or the call names either lab as a direct or indirect customer at 10% or more of revenue, or states a share of revenue for the two labs together; no if the customers at 10% or more are described without naming either lab and no share for the labs is given.
- The frontier is still paid The dollars stay at the frontier: run-rates in the tens of billions, the hard work routed to closed models, distribution that outlives parity.
- Open weights set the price Open weights months behind the frontier take the volume at a fraction of the token price; a price cut with tenfold usage reads as a price war.
Does the guarantees note in NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026 put the total maximum gross exposure under its guarantees above $108.5 billion?
Read the total maximum gross exposure the guarantees note gives, including guarantees the note says were signed after the quarter ended, as the table for July 26, 2026 did.
- The loan is a bridge End buyers are real and paying; the seller's money fills a credit gap for unrated buyers, and outside capital is taking its place.
- The seller funds its demand Vendor money holds marginal demand above the market rate: the neoclouds exist to place the seller's chips, and the labs pledge the money back.
Does NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026 report AI cloud agreements, in its disclosure of purchase obligations and other commitments, above $36 billion?
Read the amount the 10-Q gives for AI cloud agreements, the cloud services NVIDIA has committed to buy, at October 25, 2026.
- The loan is a bridge End buyers are real and paying; the seller's money fills a credit gap for unrated buyers, and outside capital is taking its place.
- The seller funds its demand Vendor money holds marginal demand above the market rate: the neoclouds exist to place the seller's chips, and the labs pledge the money back.
In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, do the direct customers the filing lists at 10% or more of accounts receivable together account for more than 70% of accounts receivable?
Sum the percentages of the accounts receivable balance at October 25, 2026 that the 10-Q gives for each direct customer at 10% or more.
- The loan is a bridge End buyers are real and paying; the seller's money fills a credit gap for unrated buyers, and outside capital is taking its place.
- The seller funds its demand Vendor money holds marginal demand above the market rate: the neoclouds exist to place the seller's chips, and the labs pledge the money back.
Who writes the checks for the buildout? Settles
Did the New Mexico Environment Department approve the air-quality permit for the fuel cells at the Project Jupiter campus in Doña Ana County by November 23, 2026?
The answer is yes if the department publishes a final permit approval, with or without conditions, on or before November 23, 2026; no if it publishes a denial by that date.
- The cash has to triple The cash has to triple
- The spending pays The spending pays
Do the orders turn into profit? Settles
Perma-Pipe's third quarter: 40% to 50% of the $142.3 million backlog converting, $57 million to $71 million, with gross margin moving toward 30% and no second receivable write-off.
- Funded, not forecast Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
- A backlog is a promise Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
Who pays for the AI power bill? Settles
Does PJM's Base Residual Auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, scheduled for December 9, 2026, clear the RTO-wide capacity price below the price cap in effect for that auction?
Read from PJM's published results report.
- The load pays its way Builders fund their own lines, substations and security deposits; costs assigned to whoever causes them keep households whole.
- The bill no state can shield The capacity price reaches every bill before any invoice is drawn; no state tariff can shield households from a wholesale scarcity.
Is power scarcity a warning, or a moat? Settles
ERCOT is due to verify its first large-load batch study; the cleared list shows whether Texas weeds out speculators or rations power.
- Scarcity as a warning Scarcity as a warning
- Scarcity as a moat Scarcity as a moat
Do the orders turn into profit? Settles
Oracle reports: whether new remaining performance obligations keep arriving prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, the condition for a capex peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028.
results reported => read the print
- Funded, not forecast Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
- A backlog is a promise Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
For the six months ended November 30, 2026, does Oracle's increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component exceed 40% of its net cash provided by operating activities?
Divide the line for the increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component by net cash provided by operating activities, both for the six months ended November 30, 2026, as printed in the statement of cash flows of the earnings release, or of the Form 10-Q when the release does not print the six months.
- The lease is already debt Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
- The cash flows cover it The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
Is power scarcity a warning, or a moat? Settles
Nebius must turn 800MW–1GW connected against 5GW contracted into Vineland revenue; commissioning and GPU fill test execution.
- Scarcity as a warning Scarcity as a warning
- Scarcity as a moat Scarcity as a moat
Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) close at 5.50% or higher on any day from October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026 for which FRED reports a value?
Read every daily observation of DGS10 dated October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026, as FRED shows them on January 5, 2027; the days read are the days for which FRED reports a value.
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
SpaceX after the IPO: exit liquidity, or the next ten-bagger? Settles
Quarterly deployed gigawatts will test the roughly 10 GW site plan against 0.4 GW operating now.
- Exit liquidity read as warning
- The number is real read as entry
The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither? Settles
Resilient hyperscaler free cash flow would ease leverage fears; negative cash flow would validate Erkan’s tripwire.
- 1999 capex plus 2008 credit read as the fuse
- The borrowing is rational read as the fuel
Is the capex spending defense, or is the return not there? Settles
Did Alphabet shares close higher on the first full trading day after Alphabet disclosed a 2027 capital-spending budget above its 2026 budget than at the close before the disclosure?
Read the 2027 capital-expenditure figure or range Alphabet gives in the release or on the call, and the Nasdaq close of GOOGL on the first full trading day after it against the close before.
- The return is not there read as destruction
- The spending is defense read as defense
Is the capex spending defense, or is the return not there? Settles
Hyperscaler free cash flow shows whether operating cash flow catches capex growth; a catch-up makes external funding temporary.
- The return is not there read as destruction
- The spending is defense read as defense
How fast do habits break? Settles
The first tax season with agents tests whether households still pay Intuit for certainty or ask an agent.
- Eighteen months, or less Eighteen months, or less
- Still a demo Still a demo
Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook of January 2027 put the average Brent crude oil spot price for the fourth quarter of 2026 above $105 a barrel?
Read the fourth-quarter 2026 Brent spot average, in dollars per barrel, from the energy prices table of the January 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook, where the quarter is history.
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
Who writes the checks for the buildout? Settles
Pipeline in-service date tests whether Project Jupiter can secure fuel for its planned campus.
- The cash has to triple The cash has to triple
- The spending pays The spending pays
Do the midpoints of the 2027 capital expenditure guidance that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta give with their fourth-quarter 2026 results sum to at least 25% more than the three companies' 2026 capital expenditures?
Each company's 2026 capital expenditures and its 2027 guidance are read as that company defines capital expenditures in the release or on the call that gives the guidance (for Meta, including principal payments on finance leases).
- The cash still covers it Cloud sales grow fast enough, and contracts arrive early enough, that the spenders' own cash carries the build and services the debt.
- The bill has moved to debt Capital spending now exceeds the cash the spenders earn; bonds, leases and commitments kept off the balance sheet fill the gap.
Did the combined purchases of property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the four calendar quarters of 2026 exceed their combined net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarters?
Sum, for each company, January 1 to December 31, 2026: Alphabet, Amazon and Meta from their annual statements of cash flows; Microsoft from the four quarters of its fiscal 2026 and 2027 that fall in the calendar year, each the later cumulative figure less the earlier one.
- The cash still covers it Cloud sales grow fast enough, and contracts arrive early enough, that the spenders' own cash carries the build and services the debt.
- The bill has moved to debt Capital spending now exceeds the cash the spenders earn; bonds, leases and commitments kept off the balance sheet fill the gap.
Do the leases signed but not yet commenced that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta report as of December 31, 2026 in their Form 10-K for 2026, that Microsoft reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2026, and that Oracle reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, add up to more than $1.2 trillion?
Add, as printed and undiscounted, the amount each filing gives for leases that have not yet commenced: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft at December 31, 2026, and Oracle at November 30, 2026.
- The lease is already debt Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
- The cash flows cover it The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
Does Alphabet's Form 10-K for 2026 show a liability on its credit derivatives above 1.86% of their gross notional amount, both as of December 31, 2026?
Divide the liability shown for credit derivatives in the table of fair values of outstanding derivative instruments by the gross notional amount of credit derivatives in the table of notional amounts, both as of December 31, 2026.
- The lease is already debt Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
- The cash flows cover it The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
Who pays for the AI power bill? Settles
In the EIA-861M data for calendar 2026, as first published, is the median change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across PJM's nine jurisdictions against calendar 2025 at least four percentage points above the median of the other 42, with Texas's change below the national change?
Same computation as p13-t01, over January to December 2026 against January to December 2025, with the national figure from the U.
- The load pays its way Builders fund their own lines, substations and security deposits; costs assigned to whoever causes them keep households whole.
- The bill no state can shield The capacity price reaches every bill before any invoice is drawn; no state tariff can shield households from a wholesale scarcity.
Does Meta's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2026 either consolidate the Hyperion joint venture in Louisiana or record a liability above zero for its residual value guarantees to that venture?
Read the 10-K's notes on the Louisiana data center joint venture and on residual value guarantees.
- The lease is already debt Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
- The cash flows cover it The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close at or below 90% of its highest closing share price since October 16, 2026, on any business day from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027?
Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027 in the plan's share price history.
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time? Settles
Does the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate (FRED series T5YIFR) average more than 2.60% over the days of March 2027 for which FRED reports a value?
Average the daily observations of T5YIFR dated March 1 through March 31, 2027 for which FRED reports a value, as FRED shows them on April 1, 2027, rounded to two decimals.
- The boom pays the rate Nominal growth, fed by deficits and AI spending, runs faster than the 10-year, so a yield above 5% is the price of the boom, not its end.
- The two shocks compound Diesel leaks into core prices, the Fed hikes into it, and AI borrowing bids up the long end until stocks give way.
Does the hardware hold its value? Settles
Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close above $126.1817, its highest share price through October 12, 2026 (set on October 6, 2026), on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?
Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027 in the plan's share price history.
- A model, not a price A model, not a price
- Still renting at January prices Still renting at January prices
44 open questions as of October 21, 2026 (the first 40 here; the app pages the rest). Explore by sector.