The Data Desk
Run the numbers yourself.
Every chart here is built from figures reported in The Buildout, and 11 of them run on live market, filing and economic data. Move the sliders, change the yardstick, pick your entry point. The arithmetic is ours and labeled as ours, and every source is named.
The live macro tape
Five charts that test The Buildout against today’s Treasury, inflation, energy and profit data.
Data Desk · Live · Part 07Rates
The curve, live
Treasury yields from one month to 30 years, today against the day the Fed hiked. Pick a date and see which end of the curve moved.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Today, Oct 20Fed hike day, Sep 16
Change since Sep 16, basis points. Rising yields shown in red: dearer money for borrowers.
- 3M+12 bp
- 2Y+5 bp
- 5Y+8 bp
- 10Y+11 bp
- 30Y+7 bp
Since Sep 16, the 2-year has moved +5 bp and the 30-year +7 bp. Both ends have moved together.
Data Desk · Live · Part 08Infrastructure Finance
The real price of patience
Each Treasury yield split into the real return and the inflation the market expects. Set your own inflation assumption and see what a lender actually earns.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
10-year Treasury5.12%
Real yield the market pays2.77%
Inflation the market prices2.35%
Real yield at your inflation2.77%
Expected inflation, % a year
- Bond market, 10 years2.4%
- Households, next year3.9%
- Households, 3 years3.3%
- Households, 5 years3.0%
At 10 years, Treasuries pay 5.12%, or 2.77% after inflation protection, so the market prices 2.35% inflation. At your 2.35% assumption, a lender earns 2.77% in real terms, the same as inflation-protected bonds pay.
Data Desk · Live · Part 07Rates
Inflation’s last mile
Headline and core consumer prices against the 2% the Fed aims for, with the forecast path. Change the window and see how long the last mile has lasted.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Headline CPICore CPIForecast
Headline inflation was 3.7% in Sep 2026, core 2.6%. Since Sep 2024, headline has been above 2% in 24 of 24 months. The forecast path reaches 2.7% by Q3 2027.
Data Desk · Live · Part 06Power
The energy bill behind the buildout
Fuel, wholesale power and the metals in the grid, live. Switch the window, then sort by the biggest move or by input.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Price change over 12 months
- Spanish power€146.97/MWh+283%
- European gas (TTF)€88.10/MWh+174%
- French power€119.48/MWh+112%
- UK power£165.82/MWh+102%
- Brent crude (spot)$126.55 a barrel+101%
- Italian power€252.40/MWh+98%
- German power€167.53/MWh+88%
- WTI crude (spot)$101.91 a barrel+71%
- Copper$6.14/lb+39%
- Lithium carbonateCN¥102,700/t+39%
- Uranium$90.15/lb+17%
- US natural gas$3.22 per MMBtu+14%
Over 12 months, the biggest move is Spanish power at +283%. US natural gas is +14%.
Data Desk · Live · Part 10Markets
Profits ran ahead of the economy
US corporate profits against output per hour, both indexed to 100. Move the starting line and watch the gap Part 10 calls the denominator.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Corporate profitsOutput per hour
Index, Q4 2022 = 100 (dashed line)
Since Q4 2022 (before ChatGPT), corporate profits are +38.9% and output per hour +9.1%. Profits have grown 4.3 times faster.
Markets and rates
What the market pays for AI profits, and what the bond market charges for patience.
Data Desk · Live · Part 15Markets
Nearly all of the climb is real yield
The 10-year Treasury's move since the late-February low, split into the real yield and the inflation the market prices, from the daily closes. Count from another date and see whether the split holds.
As of Oct 19, 2026 · daily closes, at each build · published Oct 19, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday build
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Count the move from
10-year Treasury+118 bp
Real yield+108 bp
Breakeven inflation+10 bp
The +118 bp move from Feb 27, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026, by part
Real yieldBreakeven inflation
10-year TreasuryReal yield
From Feb 27, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026, the 10-year Treasury moved +118 bp: +108 bp from the real yield and +10 bp from expected inflation. That is the market charging more for money, not pricing more inflation.
Data Desk · Part 10Markets
Run the denominator
The S&P 500 trades at 19.0 times forward earnings, which sounds reasonable until you set it beside a 10-year Treasury paying 5.12%. Cut the earnings, move the yield, and watch the gap to Treasuries change sign.
As of Oct 20, 2026 · irregular, with each Part on valuation · published Oct 20, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · scenario · next release after the October 28 reports
Multiple at today’s prices19.0x
Stocks’ earnings yield5.26%
Forward earnings yield minus 10-year Treasury yield+14 bp
- 5-year average19.8xtoday 0.8x cheaper
- 10-year average19.1xtoday 0.1x cheaper
- End of June20.4xtoday 1.4x cheaper
This is a valuation sensitivity, not a risk-adjusted return comparison. Earnings are not contractual distributions, and the two assets differ in duration, growth, inflation exposure and risk.
At 19.0x, stocks yield 5.26% on forward profits against 5.12% on the 10-year. The forward earnings yield is 14 basis points above the 10-year Treasury yield.
Data Desk · Part 07Rates
The 10-year ladder
The Fed raised its rate on September 16. The long end kept climbing anyway. Here is where the 10-year stands against the levels investors say will break something.
As of Oct 20, 2026 · on each Fed decision · published Sep 24, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release Oct 28, 2026
Where it is
Where it breaks
10-year, latest close
The latest daily close, refreshed at each build.
Source: FRED
The 104 bp climb from the late-February low, as of Sep 24
Real yield: 96 bpExpected inflation: 8 bp
Real 10-year yield vs. the TSCS kill switch
2.85% on Sep 24Kill switch 3.15%: 30 bp away
10-year, latest close, Oct 20: 5.12%. The latest daily close, refreshed at each build.
Data Desk · Part 02Capital Markets
SpaceX: it depends when you bought
Eight weeks, four prices. Pick your entry point and see what the market paid you for believing.
As of Aug 12, 2026 · daily closes, frozen with Part 02 · published Aug 12, 2026 · read Aug 13, 2026 · observed
If you bought at
Bought at the IPO ($135.00): up 8.3% at the Aug 12 close of $146.15.
Credit and collateral
The promises lenders are underwriting, measured against the cash that has to keep them.
Data Desk · Part 17Markets
One obligation, five totals
The builders' commitments off the balance sheet, as five counts put them, each with a different date, instrument or base. Pick the yardstick and see how far each count runs ahead of a year of the builders' own cash.
As of Sep 29, 2026 · with each filing season · published Sep 29, 2026 · read Oct 12, 2026 · reported · next release Feb 16, 2027
Measure everything against
- Operating cash flow, five builders, four quartersSEC filings, DeepStack sum$0.71Tyardstick
- Leases not yet begun, end of 2025Moody's via Fortune$0.66T0.9× cash flow, a year
- Leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026DeepStack sum of the filings$1.12T1.6× cash flow, a year
- Leases, August 2026UBS Asset Management$1.25T1.8× cash flow, a year
- Leases and purchase commitments, SeptemberMichael Burry$2.70T3.8× cash flow, a year
- Commitments net of cashUBS Asset Management$3.50T4.9× cash flow, a year
Measured against operating cash flow, five builders, four quarters ($0.71T), leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026 are 1.6 times, and leases and purchase commitments, september are 3.8 times that yardstick.
Data Desk · Live · Part 16Markets
Days of sales Nvidia is owed
Accounts receivable at quarter end over the quarter's revenue, times 91 days, from the filings and refreshed with each one. Set the yardstick and see how many dollars sit above it.
As of Jul 26, 2026 · quarterly, with each filing · published Aug 26, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · derived · next release Nov 18, 2026
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:43 p.m. ET
Days of sales owed at quarter end; the mark is your yardstick
- Quarter to Apr 27, 202545.7 days
- Quarter to Jul 27, 202554.1 days
- Quarter to Oct 26, 202553.3 days
- Quarter to Jan 25, 202651.4 days
- Quarter to Apr 26, 202645.4 days
- Quarter to Jul 26, 202659.6 days
Receivables, Quarter to Jul 26, 2026$63.1B
Quarterly revenue, Quarter to Jul 26, 2026$96.2B
Above your collection pace, Quarter to Jul 26, 2026$15.1B
Nvidia: 59.6 days in the quarter to Jul 26, 2026, up from 45.7 days in the quarter to Apr 27, 2025. At your yardstick of 45.4 days, the latest period carries $15.1B more than the yardstick allows.
Data Desk · Part 08Infrastructure Finance
Commitments versus cash
Lenders are underwriting a promise that hyperscaler cash flow will roughly triple by 2030. Pick a yardstick and see how far the commitments already run ahead of it.
As of Sep 28, 2026 · quarterly, with the hyperscaler reports · published Sep 28, 2026 · read Sep 29, 2026 · estimated · next release after the October 28 reports
Measure everything against
- Hyperscaler earnings, past yearMichael Burryunder $0.4T0.7× cash flow today
- Operating cash flow todayTorsten Slok, Apollo$0.6Tyardstick
- Cash flow needed by 2030Torsten Slok, Apollo$2.0T3.3× cash flow today
- Hyperscaler backlogApollo via DeepValue Capital$2.3T3.8× cash flow today
- Off-balance-sheet commitmentsMichael Burry$2.7T4.5× cash flow today
Measured against operating cash flow today ($0.6T), off-balance-sheet commitments are 4.5 times, and cash flow needed by 2030 are 3.3 times that yardstick.
Data Desk · Part 03Credit
The cloud revenue hurdle
To justify next year’s spending, cloud revenue has to reach about $960 billion. It runs at about $380 billion today. Choose a growth rate and see how long the climb takes.
As of Aug 15, 2026 · with each company report · published Aug 15, 2026 · read Aug 15, 2026 · scenario
Years to the hurdle2.8
Run rate today$380B
Booked across three clouds$1.69T
At 40% a year, cloud revenue needs about 2.8 years to grow from $380 billion to $960 billion. The spending it has to justify lands next year.
Spending and power
How fast the money is going out, and what the physical bottleneck now costs.
Data Desk · Live · Part 14Markets
Cents of each operating dollar spent on the build
Purchases of property and equipment against net cash from operations, quarter by quarter, for the four biggest builders and their total, read from the filings and refreshed when the next ones land. Above the mark, the build cost more than the business brought in.
As of Jun 30, 2026 · quarterly, with each filing · published Jul 31, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · derived · next release Oct 28, 2026
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:43 p.m. ET
Capital spending as a share of operating cash flow; the mark is every dollar of operating cash
- Q3 202450.9%
- Q4 202453.6%
- Q1 202562.9%
- Q2 202568.7%
- Q3 202561.2%
- Q4 202566.3%
- Q1 202686.1%
- Q2 202696.1%
Capital spending, Q2 2026$165.1B
Operating cash flow, Q2 2026$171.8B
Periods above 100.0%0 of 8
The four: 96.1% in Q2 2026, up from 50.9% in Q3 2024. No period shown is above 100.0%.
Data Desk · Live · Part 13Markets
Who pays the power bill first
Household electricity prices in the nine jurisdictions PJM serves against the other 42 states, the nation and Texas, from the federal monthly filings and refreshed with each release. Switch to the latest month, then sort by the biggest rise or by group.
As of Jul 31, 2026 · monthly, with each release · published Sep 24, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next EIA-861M release, around the 24th of the month
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:43 p.m. ET
Average price, August 2025 to July 2026, against the twelve months before
- District of Columbia+22.0%
- New Jersey+14.0%
- Maryland+13.6%
- Pennsylvania+12.8%
- Illinois+12.1%
- Ohio+11.9%
- Virginia+11.7%
- United States+6.6%
- Median of the other 42 states+5.7%
- Delaware+5.5%
- Texas+4.9%
- West Virginia+0.7%
District of Columbia moved most, +22.0%. PJM jurisdictions: median +12.1%.
Data Desk · Live · Part 11Markets
Convert the backlog
A backlog is a promise with a conversion rate attached. Pick the rate and see how much of the book becomes a quarter's revenue for a small pipe maker, or a year's revenue for Microsoft, whose book is refreshed from its filings.
As of Jun 30, 2026 · quarterly, with each filing · published Jul 29, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · derived · next release Oct 28, 2026
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:43 p.m. ET
Millions of dollars; the mark is Q3 FY2025 revenue record
- Backlog, end of fiscal Q2Perma-Pipe, via Schwar Capital Research, Sep 19, 2026$142.3M
- Implied at 40%DeepStack arithmetic$56.9M
- Q3 FY2025 revenue record$61.2M
Implied at 40%$56.9M
Q3 FY2025 revenue record$61.2M
Implied against the mark0.93×
Perma-Pipe: at 40%, $142.3M of backlog, end of fiscal Q2 implies $56.9M, 93% of Q3 FY2025 revenue record ($61.2M).
Data Desk · Part 06Power
What power costs now
Two prices tell the story of the bottleneck: what the grid charges to guarantee capacity, and what a buyer pays to get compute now rather than later.
As of Aug 12, 2026 · with each PJM auction and each Nebius quote · published Aug 12, 2026 · read Sep 19, 2026 · observed · next release Dec 9, 2026
PJM capacity price, dollars per megawatt-day
- 2024/25 auction$28.92
- 2025/26 auction$269.92
- 2026/27 auction$329.17
PJM capacity cleared at $329.17 a megawatt-day in the latest auction, 11.4 times the $28.92 of two auctions earlier. IEEFA attributes 63% of the jump to data centers.
Data Desk · Part 04Capex
The capex clock
Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta spent $165 billion on capital projects in three months. That is a pace you can watch.
As of Aug 4, 2026 · quarterly · published Aug 4, 2026 · read Sep 4, 2026 · implied · next release Oct 28, 2026
Spent by the four since you opened this page
$0
- Same quarter, three years earlierimplied$33.5B
- Same quarter, a year earlierimplied$88.2B
- Latest quarter$165B
Per day$1.81B
Per second$20,928
New debt as share of capex9% → 32%2024 → Last 12 months
At last quarter’s pace the four spend about $1.8 billion a day, or roughly $20,900 every second.
Data Desk · Part 01Chips
Orders outrun shipments
In a single quarter, Broadcom booked nearly three dollars of AI chip orders for every dollar it shipped. The money to pay for that demand is being raised in tranches.
As of Aug 9, 2026 · with each company report · published Aug 9, 2026 · read Aug 10, 2026 · observed
Broadcom AI semiconductors, one quarter, billions of dollars
- AI chip orders booked$30.0B
- AI chips shipped$10.8B
Broadcom booked $30 billion of AI semiconductor orders in one quarter against $10.8 billion shipped: 2.8 dollars of orders for every dollar delivered.
The AI business
Who is actually making money from the models, and who the agents are coming for.
Data Desk · Part 12Markets
Run-rates, as relayed
Annualized revenue at the two labs as four writers relayed it between May and October, none of it audited, beside the one trailing figure that came out of a leaked prospectus. Sort by lab or by size, then switch to the yardstick.
As of Oct 2, 2026 · irregular, as the writers relay it · published Oct 2, 2026 · read Oct 9, 2026 · reported · next release Anthropic's registration statement on EDGAR
Annualized revenue as relayed, billions of dollars
- OpenAI, OctoberKim, Oct 2$70B
- Anthropic, JulyRomero, Sep 21$65B
- Anthropic, MayLongriver, Jul 20$50B
- OpenAI, JulyRomero, Sep 21$40B
Anthropic, as relayed: $50 billion in May and $65 billion in July. OpenAI: $40 billion in July and $70 billion as reported on October 2.
Data Desk · Live · Part 09Agents
Winners and losers at the first checkout
From the day Meta launched its shopping agent, the market sorted companies into two piles: the ones building agents, and the ones whose customers agents might reroute. Refreshed with each close; switch the start date, then sort by move or by group.
As of Oct 20, 2026 · daily closes, at each build · published Oct 21, 2026 · read Oct 21, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday build
Live data, updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:43 p.m. ET
Change in closing price, Sep 8, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026
- Meta+13%
- Expedia+10%
- Advanced Micro Devices+6%
- Planet Fitness+6%
- Intuit+5%
- S&P 500+1%
- Booking Holdings−9%
- Netflix−11%
- Comcast−15%
- Bank of America−19%
Bank of America moved most, −19%. Building agents: median +10%; Habit businesses: median −9%.
Data Desk · Part 05AI Labs
The price of the same job
One coding task, three models. On a linear scale the cheapest one all but disappears. Switch to a log scale, then dial up the volume to see a buyer’s monthly bill.
As of Aug 9, 2026 · with each list-price change · published Aug 9, 2026 · read Sep 11, 2026 · scenario
- Claude Opus 5$0.32 per task$320,000a month
- Kimi$0.24 per task$240,000a month
- DeepSeek$0.005 per task$5,000a month
Linear scale: bar length is proportional to price.
At 1,000,000 tasks a month: Claude Opus 5 $320,000, Kimi $240,000, DeepSeek $5,000. The most expensive model costs 64 times the cheapest.
Data Desk · Part 05AI Labs
Two labs, two businesses
OpenAI and Anthropic are usually traded as one bet on AI demand. Their second quarters say they are not the same business.
As of Aug 9, 2026 · quarterly, as the labs report · published Aug 9, 2026 · read Sep 11, 2026 · estimated · next release an audited filing on EDGAR
Quarterly revenue, billions of dollars
Q1 2026Q2 2026
- OpenAI$5.7B$6.7B
- Anthropic$4.8Bimplied$11.6B
OpenAI went from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion. Anthropic reached $11.6 billion, from an implied $4.8 billion.
The tape, expanded
Every number in The Buildout.
68 figures from 17 stories, each with its date and context. Filter by beat, or search for a company, a rate or a name.
- Leases signed but not yet begun at Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, mid-2026DeepStack's sum of the five filings at June 30, 2026 (Oracle at Aug 31, 2026), SEC EDGAR; Moody's counted $662 billion at the end of 2025Part 17 · MarketsAlphabet
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars, undiscounted
- Universe
- Leases signed but not yet commenced, as each company prints them, at Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet; Alphabet's separate short-term lease of about $5.8 billion left out
- Period
- June 30, 2026 for four companies; August 31, 2026 for Oracle
- As of
- Transformation
- DeepStack's sum of the five printed amounts: $329.1 billion, $288 billion, $278.99 billion, $137.2 billion and $85.2 billion, $1,118.5 billion.
- Limits
- Mixed dates; undiscounted rent over terms of up to 30 years is not comparable one to one with debt; leases signed after each date, such as Meta's $68 billion of July 2026, are left out. The test reads the same lines at year-end.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Approximate threshold of Meta's residual value guarantees on the Hyperion venture, June 30, 2026, with no liability recordedMeta Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, SEC EDGAR; inside a $46.03 billion maximum exposure that also counts equity, funding and lease commitmentsPart 17 · MarketsMeta
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The aggregate threshold of Meta's residual value guarantees to the Louisiana data center joint venture (Hyperion)
- Period
- June 30, 2026
- Source
- Meta Platforms, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, SEC EDGAR, read October 12, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published (approximately $28 billion).
- Limits
- A cap on payments, not an expected loss; it sits inside the $46.03 billion maximum exposure, which also counts Meta's equity, funding commitments and leases from the venture; the filing records no liability for the guarantees.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Liability on Alphabet's data center credit derivatives as a share of their notional amount, June 30, 2026Alphabet Form 10-Q, June 30, 2026, SEC EDGAR: $815 million on $43.8 billion; 0.41% at Dec 31, 2025; DeepStack's divisionPart 17 · MarketsAlphabet
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent
- Universe
- The liability recorded on Alphabet's credit derivatives that backstop data center payment obligations, divided by their gross notional amount
- Period
- June 30, 2026 (0.41% at December 31, 2025)
- As of
- Transformation
- DeepStack's division: $815 million of liabilities divided by $43,785 million of notional.
- Limits
- Fair value at one date; the estimated $24.1 billion of backstops not yet final is outside the notional; the test reads the same two rows at December 31, 2026, against 1.86%.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Share of Oracle's operating cash from customer prepayments with a financing component, quarter to Aug 31, 2026Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 release, Sep 10, 2026, SEC EDGAR: $11.36 billion of $23.10 billionPart 17 · MarketsOracle
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent
- Universe
- Oracle's increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component, as a share of net cash provided by operating activities
- Period
- The quarter ended August 31, 2026
- Source
- Oracle, first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, September 10, 2026, SEC EDGAR
- As of
- Transformation
- DeepStack's division: $11,363 million divided by $23,103 million.
- Limits
- One quarter; the test reads the six months to November 30, 2026, against a line of 40%.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Days of sales Nvidia was owed at July 26, 2026, from 45.4 at April 26NVIDIA Forms 10-Q filed May 20 and Aug 26, 2026; DeepStack calculation: receivables over the quarter's revenue, times 91Part 16 · MarketsNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- days
- Universe
- NVIDIA: accounts receivable, net at quarter end against revenue for the three months
- Period
- The quarter ended July 26, 2026 (fiscal second quarter of 2027); 45.4 for the quarter ended April 26, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- Receivables of $63,059 million divided by revenue of $96,221 million, times 91 days; April: $40,710 million over $81,615 million, times 91.
- Limits
- Nvidia does not publish days sales outstanding; payment terms are a different measure; late-quarter shipments lift the quarter-end balance.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Receivables above Nvidia's April collection pace, July 26, 2026: 15.7% of the quarter's revenueNVIDIA Forms 10-Q, read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; $9.1B, or 9.4%, against the four-quarter averagePart 16 · MarketsNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- NVIDIA: receivables above the balance the April quarter's collection pace implies for the July quarter's revenue
- Period
- The quarter ended July 26, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- $63.1B less $96.2B times 45.4 over 91 ($48.0B); 15.7% of the quarter's revenue. Against the 51.1-day average of the four prior quarters: $9.1B, 9.4%.
- Limits
- A ceiling: late-quarter shipments and normal terms also lift receivables; the filing does not split the change by cause.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Nvidia's maximum exposure on guarantees in its July 26, 2026 table, from $3.5B at April 26NVIDIA Form 10-Q filed Aug 26, 2026; up to $105B for SB Energy, phased in from fiscal 2029Part 16 · MarketsNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- NVIDIA: total maximum gross exposure under guarantees, as the guarantees note tabulates it
- Period
- The table for July 26, 2026, which includes guarantees signed in August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- A ceiling, not an expected loss: up to $105B for SB Energy takes effect in phases from fiscal 2029; $3.5B at April 26, 2026, reduced as partners pay.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- Share of Nvidia's receivables owed by five direct customers, July 26, 2026NVIDIA Forms 10-Q filed Aug 26 and May 20, 2026; three customers held 64% at April 26, 2026Part 16 · MarketsNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of accounts receivable
- Universe
- NVIDIA: direct customers the 10-Q lists at 10% or more of accounts receivable, summed
- Period
- July 26, 2026 (22%, 14%, 13%, 11% and 10%); three customers held 64% at April 26, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- Sum of the shares the filing lists.
- Limits
- Direct customers only; the filing does not name them, and the labs reach Nvidia through clouds and partners.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 13, 2026.
- 10-year Treasury yield at the close of October 5, 2026, its highest close since May 2002FRED (DGS10), read Oct 12, 2026; 5.22% on Oct 8; first close at 5% or more on Sep 15Part 15 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, yield
- Universe
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yield, daily close, from the Federal Reserve's H.15 release
- Period
- Close of October 5, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published by FRED, daily close.
- Limits
- A constant-maturity series; the highest close since May 14, 2002 (5.32%) by the same series; 5.22% on October 8, 2026; first close at 5% or more on September 15.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Rise in the 10-year real yield from February 27 to October 8, 2026, of the 10-year's 125FRED (DFII10, DGS10), read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; 1.72% to 2.87%Part 15 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- basis points
- Universe
- The 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed (TIPS) constant-maturity yield, daily close, from the Federal Reserve's H.15 release
- Period
- February 27 to October 8, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- 2.87% less 1.72%, in basis points (DeepStack calculation); the 10-year (DGS10) rose from 3.97% to 5.22% over the same dates.
- Limits
- TIPS yields carry a liquidity premium; the real and breakeven legs need not sum exactly to the nominal.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Rise in 10-year breakeven inflation over the same dates, February 27 to October 8, 2026FRED (T10YIE), read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; 2.25% to 2.35%Part 15 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- basis points
- Universe
- The 10-year breakeven inflation rate: the 10-year nominal yield less the 10-year TIPS yield, daily
- Period
- February 27 to October 8, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- 2.35% less 2.25%, in basis points (DeepStack calculation).
- Limits
- Breakeven is inflation compensation: expectations plus an inflation risk premium; 2.33% on October 9, 2026; its 2026 high was 2.50% on May 4.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Brent spot price the EIA forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026, a barrelEIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 6, 2026; $14 above the September outlookPart 15 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars a barrel
- Universe
- The Brent crude oil spot price, quarterly average, as forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Period
- Fourth quarter of 2026, forecast
- As of
- Transformation
- As published by the EIA; $14 above the September outlook.
- Limits
- A forecast, not a market price; the agency attributes its daily Brent spot data to a private provider.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Capital spending per dollar of operating cash, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, second quarter of 2026SEC XBRL filings, read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; 64.8% across 2025Part 14 · MarketsAlphabet
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of operating cash
- Universe
- Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta combined: purchases of property and equipment against net cash provided by operating activities (Amazon's gross purchases line); Oracle left out
- Period
- April to June 2026 (the calendar second quarter; Microsoft's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026)
- As of
- Transformation
- The four purchases ($165.1B) divided by the four operating figures ($171.8B); a quarter given only year to date is the later cumulative figure less the earlier one.
- Limits
- Purchases exclude finance leases; Amazon's gross line runs above its own net measure; one quarter, and the September quarter usually brings in more cash. 64.8% across 2025.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Amazon's purchases of property and equipment against its operating cash, first half of 2026SEC XBRL filings, read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; 94.5% across 2025Part 14 · MarketsAmazon
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of operating cash
- Universe
- Amazon: purchases of property and equipment, gross of proceeds from sales and incentives, against net cash provided by operating activities
- Period
- January to June 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- Purchases of $98.4B divided by operating cash of $71.4B, six months to June 30, 2026.
- Limits
- Amazon's own measure nets out equipment sales and incentives and shows a smaller gap; finance leases are not counted. 94.5% across 2025.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Microsoft's operating cash left after purchases of property and equipment, first half of 2026SEC XBRL filings, read Oct 12, 2026; DeepStack calculation; 65.3 cents spent per dollarPart 14 · MarketsMicrosoft
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Microsoft: net cash provided by operating activities less purchases of property and equipment
- Period
- January to June 2026 (Microsoft's fiscal third and fourth quarters of 2026)
- As of
- Transformation
- Operating cash of $102.1B less purchases of $66.7B; each fiscal quarter the later cumulative figure less the earlier one.
- Limits
- Purchases exclude finance leases, which Microsoft also uses for data centers; 65.3 cents spent per operating dollar.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Alphabet's free cash flow, second quarter of 2026Alphabet release, Jul 22, 2026: $39.1B of operating cash against $44.9B of purchasesPart 14 · MarketsAlphabet
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Alphabet: net cash provided by operating activities less purchases of property and equipment, the free cash flow definition Alphabet uses
- Period
- April to June 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- Operating cash of $39.1B less purchases of $44.9B, as published.
- Limits
- One quarter; the first quarter of 2026 was positive at $10.1B, and the September quarter usually brings in more cash.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
- Median rise in the household price per kilowatt-hour across the nine jurisdictions PJM serves, year to July 2026EIA-861M, first published Sep 24, 2026; DeepStack calculation; +5.6% for the other 42Part 13 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change, year over year
- Universe
- The average residential price per kilowatt-hour in each of the nine jurisdictions PJM serves wholly or largely; the median of the nine
- Period
- August 2025 to July 2026 against the twelve months before
- As of
- Transformation
- Per jurisdiction, residential revenue divided by residential sales, summed over twelve months, against the prior twelve months; the median of the nine. The other 42 states' median is 5.6%.
- Limits
- First published monthly data, which the EIA revises for about a year; the median hides a spread from 21.9% in the District of Columbia to below the national change.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 11, 2026.
- The national household price per kilowatt-hour over the same twelve monthsEIA-861M, first published Sep 24, 2026; Texas +4.8%Part 13 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change, year over year
- Universe
- The average US residential price per kilowatt-hour; Texas households paid 4.8% more
- Period
- August 2025 to July 2026 against the twelve months before
- As of
- Transformation
- National residential revenue divided by residential sales, twelve-month sums, against the prior twelve months.
- Limits
- First published monthly data, which the EIA revises for about a year.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 11, 2026.
- Shortfall against PJM's reliability requirement in the auction for the year from June 2027, the first since 2007PJM auction results, Dec 17, 2025; first read in tscsw, Feb 26, 2026Part 13 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- megawatts
- Universe
- The shortfall of cleared capacity against PJM's reliability requirement in the auction for June 2027 to May 2028: a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, the first miss since the market began in 2007
- Period
- Auction results announced by PJM on December 17, 2025, for the 2027/2028 delivery year
- As of
- Transformation
- The shortfall is PJM's reliability requirement minus the capacity that cleared, as PJM reported it: a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target. First read in tscsw, February 26, 2026.
- Limits
- The requirement and the cleared figures are PJM's; later incremental auctions can change the margin.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 11, 2026.
- Added transmission cost on Maryland bills over 10 yearsMaryland Office of People's Counsel at FERC, Jun 11, 2026Part 13 · MarketsMaryland Office of People's Counsel
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Added transmission cost on Maryland retail bills, from $2 billion of investment in PJM's three most recent regional planning cycles
- Period
- Over ten years
- As of
- Transformation
- The Office's estimate as filed.
- Limits
- An advocate's estimate; how regional transmission costs are allocated to Maryland is contested at FERC.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 11, 2026.
- Anthropic's Opus 5.5 list price per million input tokens, against OpenAI's GPT-6 AstraCharlie Hills, Sep 27, 2026; the frontier undercut by 60%Part 12 · MarketsAnthropic
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars per million input tokens
- Universe
- Anthropic's Opus 5.5 list price against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, as Charlie Hills compared them
- Period
- List prices on September 27, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As compared by the voice; 60% cheaper is one minus 4 divided by 10.
- Limits
- List prices; enterprise discounts, batch rates and output-token prices differ.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Chinese models' share of token usage on OpenRouter by SeptemberAs counted by Michael Spencer, Oct 1, 2026; Le Shrub had 66% on Sep 22Part 12 · MarketsLe Shrub
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of token usage
- Universe
- Chinese models' share of tokens served on the OpenRouter platform, as Michael Spencer counted it; Le Shrub counted 66% on September 22
- Period
- September 2026
- Source
- AI Supremacy (Michael Spencer), Gemini-4 Argon and the OpenRouter token count, October 1, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As counted by the voice from OpenRouter's public rankings.
- Limits
- OpenRouter is one routing platform, weighted toward developers and open models; not the whole market.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- The gap between the Chinese open models and the frontierTorsten Slok of Apollo, citing the Epoch Capabilities Index, Jul 16, 2026Part 12 · MarketsTorsten Slok
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- months
- Universe
- The lag between the best Chinese open-weight models and the frontier on the Epoch Capabilities Index
- Period
- The index as of July 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As stated by Apollo from Epoch's index.
- Limits
- One benchmark index; capability gaps vary by task and the lag moves with each release.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Share of Anthropic's 2025 revenue that came from two customersMia Silverio of Prof G Markets, Oct 5, 2026; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and GooglePart 12 · MarketsAmazon
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- share of revenue
- Universe
- Anthropic's 2025 revenue from its two largest customers, by Mia Silverio's reading of the customer note; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google
- Period
- Calendar 2025
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported from the customer note the voice read.
- Limits
- A leaked prospectus read second-hand; the audited filing may restate the customer breakdown.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Ciena's backlog floor at the end of fiscal 2026Ciena management, as reported by Gaetano, Sep 17, 2026; supply secured through fiscal 2029Part 11 · MarketsCiena
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Ciena's backlog at the end of fiscal 2026, the floor its management guided to, with supply secured through fiscal 2029
- Period
- Fiscal 2026 year-end (October 2026)
- Source
- Gaetano, September 17, 2026, reporting Ciena management's guidance (the voice's page on DeepStack)
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported from management commentary.
- Limits
- Guidance; a backlog can be cancelled or stretched and is not revenue.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Growth in Microsoft's backlog due beyond one yearMicrosoft filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24 to 26, 2026; the book due within a year grew 37%Part 11 · MarketsMicrosoft
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change, year over year
- Universe
- Microsoft's remaining performance obligations due beyond one year; the book due within a year grew 37%, and the share converting inside twelve months fell to 30% from 40%
- Period
- The latest annual filing, read September 24 to 26, 2026
- Source
- Michael Burry, reading Microsoft's filing, September 24 and 26, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)
- As of
- Transformation
- The voice's reading of the filing's revenue note; DeepStack did not recompute it.
- Limits
- Remaining performance obligations mix contracts of many kinds; growth rates depend on the year-earlier base.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Nvidia's terms for its best-rated customersFrom 90 days; Steve Eisman with Ed Zitron, Sep 9, 2026Part 11 · MarketsNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- payment terms
- Universe
- The payment terms Nvidia extends to its best-rated customers, up from 90 days, as Steve Eisman described them
- Period
- September 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As stated by the voice in conversation.
- Limits
- Nvidia does not disclose terms per customer; the Docket's test reads days sales outstanding instead.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Meta's residual-value guarantee on its data-center ventureMeta filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24, 2026; $10.8 billion moved to restricted cashPart 11 · MarketsMeta
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The residual-value guarantee Meta gives on its data-center joint venture, up to $28 billion on four-year initial terms; $10.8 billion moved to restricted cash
- Period
- The latest quarterly filing, read September 24, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As read by the voice from the filing's commitments note.
- Limits
- A maximum exposure, not an expected payment; the venture's own financing is not consolidated.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- S&P 500 forward multipleFactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026Part 10 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- multiple of expected earnings
- Universe
- The S&P 500 forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio
- Period
- As of October 2, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published by FactSet: the index price divided by the next twelve months' consensus earnings.
- Limits
- Depends on consensus estimates that move with each earnings season.
- Chart
- Run the denominator
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Expected Q3 earnings growthFactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026Part 10 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, year over year
- Universe
- Expected S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter, with information technology up 65%
- Period
- Third quarter of 2026 against the third quarter of 2025
- As of
- Transformation
- The bottom-up consensus, as published.
- Limits
- An estimate before the reporting season; the realized figure arrives through November.
- Chart
- Run the denominator
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Hyperscaler high-grade bondsApollo presentation via Leyla Kunimoto, through August 2026Part 10 · MarketsLeyla Kunimoto
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Investment-grade bonds sold by the hyperscalers in 2026, more than in the previous ten years combined, from an Apollo presentation Leyla Kunimoto relayed
- Period
- January through August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As relayed.
- Limits
- Second-hand from a presentation; which issuers count as hyperscalers is Apollo's choice.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- 10-year Treasury yieldCNBC, closing yield on Oct 5, 2026Part 10 · Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, yield
- Universe
- The 10-year Treasury yield at the close, the highest in about two decades
- Period
- October 5, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported.
- Limits
- A closing level as reported; FRED's constant-maturity series can differ by a basis point or two.
- Chart
- The 10-year ladder
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Meta stock gainClosing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026Part 09 · AgentsMeta
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change in share price
- Universe
- Meta's closing share price, from the day it launched its shopping agent to October 2
- Period
- September 8 to October 2, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- The close on October 2 divided by the close on September 8, minus one, rounded.
- Limits
- Price only, no dividends; the window starts on the launch day, not the day before.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- AMD stock gainClosing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026Part 09 · AgentsAMD
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change in share price
- Universe
- Advanced Micro Devices' closing share price over the same window
- Period
- September 8 to October 2, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- The close on October 2 divided by the close on September 8, minus one, rounded.
- Limits
- Price only, no dividends; a single stock over four weeks carries news of its own.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Paid consumer AI adoptionMoses Sternstein, first quarter estimatePart 09 · AgentsMoses Sternstein
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of consumers
- Universe
- The share of consumers paying for an AI product, by Moses Sternstein's estimate
- Period
- First quarter of 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As estimated by the voice.
- Limits
- An estimate built from app and survey data; what counts as paid and as a consumer is the author's definition.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Booking in AI recommendationsOguz Erkan, September 2026Part 09 · AgentsOguz Erkan
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of recommendations
- Universe
- The share of AI travel recommendations in which Booking Holdings appears, by Oguz Erkan's count
- Period
- September 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported.
- Limits
- A sample the voice built; which assistants and prompts were counted is not stated.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Oracle five-year CDSRecord that week, according to Seeking AlphaPart 08 · Infrastructure FinanceOracle
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- basis points a year
- Universe
- The five-year credit default swap on Oracle: the annual cost of protecting its debt, in hundredths of a percent of the amount covered
- Period
- The week of September 21, 2026, a record for the name
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported.
- Limits
- CDS quotes come from dealers, not an exchange; levels differ by provider and by the day within the week.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- CCC spread over TreasuriesSeptember 28, 2026; FREDPart 08 · Infrastructure Finance
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- basis points
- Universe
- The ICE BofA CCC and lower US high-yield index option-adjusted spread over Treasuries; a 16.4% all-in yield
- Period
- September 28, 2026, the widest of the year
- As of
- Transformation
- As published by FRED.
- Limits
- An index of the riskiest rated issuers, not AI-specific.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Hyperscaler cash-flow targetTorsten Slok’s 2030 assumptionPart 08 · Infrastructure FinanceTorsten Slok
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars a year
- Universe
- Hyperscaler operating cash flow the credit market assumes by 2030, up from about $600 billion
- Period
- A 2030 assumption, stated in September 2026
- Source
- Apollo (Torsten Slok), hyperscaler credit rests on one consensus assumption, September 21, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As stated in the Apollo note.
- Limits
- An assumption attributed to bond investors, not a forecast DeepStack tested.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Off-balance-sheet commitmentsBurry estimate across five hyperscalersPart 08 · Infrastructure Finance
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Leases on data centers not yet in service plus non-cancellable purchase commitments across five hyperscalers, as Michael Burry totals them from their filings
- Period
- The latest filings as of September 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- The voice's sum of the five companies' commitment notes; DeepStack did not re-add them.
- Limits
- Commitments span years and can be renegotiated; special-purpose vehicles, guarantees and backstops could add more.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- 10-year Treasury yieldFRED, six trading days after September 16Part 07 · Rates
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, yield
- Universe
- The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, from 5.01% on the day of the Fed's September 16 decision
- Period
- Close of September 24, 2026, six trading days after the decision
- As of
- Transformation
- As published by FRED, daily close.
- Limits
- A constant-maturity series; the on-the-run note's yield can differ by a few basis points.
- Chart
- The 10-year ladder
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Federal deficitTSCS, cumulative through August 2026Part 07 · RatesTSCS
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The federal budget deficit, cumulative for the fiscal year
- Period
- October 2025 through August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As cited by the voice from the Treasury's monthly statement.
- Limits
- Eleven months of fiscal 2026; September completes the year.
- Chart
- The 10-year ladder
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- CleanSpark note couponJunkBondInvestor, September 18, 2026Part 07 · RatesCleanSpark
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, coupon
- Universe
- CleanSpark's $2.3 billion of five-year notes, sold two days after the Fed's move with about $10 billion of orders
- Period
- Priced September 18, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported.
- Limits
- The new-issue coupon; secondary yields moved after pricing.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Hyperscaler backlogApollo via DeepValue Capital, September 2026Part 07 · RatesDeepValue Capital
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The contracted backlog of the hyperscalers, with OpenAI and Anthropic more than half of it, in Apollo's framing
- Period
- September 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As relayed by the voice from an Apollo note.
- Limits
- Backlog definitions differ by company; most filings call it remaining performance obligations.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Nebius one-to-three-year priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading postPart 06 · PowerNebius
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars per megawatt
- Universe
- What a customer signing for one to three years pays Nebius per megawatt, as Michael Burry read the company's commentary
- Period
- August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported by the voice.
- Limits
- A range the voice read from company commentary; contract terms vary by site and by GPU generation.
- Chart
- What power costs now
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Nebius six-month priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading postPart 06 · PowerNebius
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars per megawatt
- Universe
- What a customer demanding delivery within six months pays Nebius per megawatt, by the same reading
- Period
- August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported by the voice.
- Limits
- A range the voice read from company commentary; the premium narrows as capacity comes online.
- Chart
- What power costs now
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- NVL72 deployment needDaniel Romero, 2027 estimate at full usePart 06 · PowerDaniel Romero
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- gigawatts
- Universe
- Power needed to run the NVL72 systems Nvidia expects to ship, at 225 kilowatts each plus cooling, at full use
- Period
- A 2027 estimate
- As of
- Transformation
- The voice's arithmetic: systems times 225 kilowatts, plus cooling overhead; 204 terawatt-hours a year at full use.
- Limits
- An estimate at full utilization; real fleets run below it, and the shipment count is a forecast.
- Chart
- What power costs now
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Construction ex-data centersMichael Burry citing Apollo, June year over yearPart 06 · PowerMichael Burry
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent change, year over year
- Universe
- US private construction spending excluding data centers, as Apollo separated it and Michael Burry cited it
- Period
- June 2026 against June 2025
- Source
- Apollo (Torsten Slok), cited by Michael Burry on August 12, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)
- As of
- Transformation
- As cited; the underlying series is the Census Bureau's construction spending, with data centers removed by Apollo.
- Limits
- Second-hand; the Census revises construction spending for several months after each release.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Anthropic quarterly growthQuarter on quarter, Q2 2026Part 05 · AI LabsAnthropic
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, quarter on quarter
- Universe
- Anthropic's revenue growth from the first to the second quarter of 2026, as Michael Spencer counted it from reported run-rates
- Period
- Second quarter of 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- A private company; the figure is the voice's count from reported run-rates, not audited revenue.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- OpenAI quarterly growthQuarter on quarter, Q2 2026Part 05 · AI LabsOpenAI
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, quarter on quarter
- Universe
- OpenAI's revenue growth from the first to the second quarter of 2026, by the same count
- Period
- Second quarter of 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- A private company; the figure is the voice's count from reported run-rates, not audited revenue.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- OpenAI 2025 lossSteve Eisman; 2025Part 05 · AI LabsOpenAI
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- OpenAI's loss for calendar 2025, as Steve Eisman cited it
- Period
- Calendar 2025
- As of
- Transformation
- As cited by the voice.
- Limits
- A private company; the figure reached the public through reporting, not a filing, and later reporting of the 2025 loss used a different basis.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Anthropic adjusted incomeMichael Spencer; preliminary June quarter 2026Part 05 · AI LabsAnthropic
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Anthropic's adjusted operating income, preliminary, as Michael Spencer reported it
- Period
- June quarter of 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported; adjusted on the company's basis as relayed.
- Limits
- Preliminary and unaudited; the adjustments are not itemized in what DeepStack read.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Combined annual capexFour companies, disclosed in late JulyPart 04 · Capex
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The 2026 capital budgets of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, combined
- Period
- Calendar 2026, as guided in the last week of July
- As of
- Transformation
- The sum of the four companies' guidance, as tallied by the publication.
- Limits
- Guidance, not spending; each company defines capital expenditure differently, finance leases in particular.
- Chart
- The capex clock
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Quarterly hyperscaler capexProf G Markets; three months, August 4Part 04 · CapexProf G Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta in the June quarter, up 87% from a year earlier
- Period
- Three months to June 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As tallied by Prof G Markets from the four companies' quarterly reports.
- Limits
- Cash capital expenditure as reported; some of the four exclude finance leases.
- Chart
- The capex clock
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Alphabet Q2 free cash flowHayden Capital; Q2, first negative since 2004 IPOPart 04 · CapexAlphabet
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Alphabet's free cash flow in the June quarter, its first negative quarter since the 2004 listing, as Hayden Capital read it
- Period
- Second quarter of 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- Operating cash flow less capital expenditure, as the letter reads it.
- Limits
- A fund letter's reading; Alphabet's own definition of free cash flow can differ.
- Chart
- The capex clock
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- 2026–30 hyperscaler capexOscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030Part 04 · CapexKevin Gee
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Expected hyperscaler capital spending, cumulative, against about $863 billion of incremental annual AI revenue by 2030
- Period
- 2026 through 2030
- As of
- Transformation
- As relayed; a projection, not a disclosure.
- Limits
- A forecast; the revenue comparison depends on what counts as AI revenue.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Wall Street-arranged chip facilityHeadlines, August 12, 2026Part 03 · Credit
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- A financing facility, arranged with Wall Street banks, behind purchases of Nvidia chips, as reported in headlines
- Period
- Reported August 11 to 12, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported.
- Limits
- A headline figure; the borrower, the lenders and the terms were not disclosed in what DeepStack read.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Nvidia Ohio-campus guaranteeVitaliy Katsenelson, August 6, 2026Part 03 · CreditNvidia
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Lease and debt financing for an OpenAI data-center campus in Ohio that Nvidia was in talks to guarantee, beside up to $350 billion for OpenAI's chip purchases
- Period
- Talks reported August 6, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported by the voice.
- Limits
- Talks, not a signed guarantee; the split between leases and debt is not public.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Modeled compute internal returnMarket Sentiment, August 8, 2026Part 03 · CreditMarket Sentiment
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent, internal rate of return
- Universe
- A modeled hyperscaler compute investment: $100 billion of annual capital spending producing about $160 billion of steady-state revenue, a 1.6 times multiple
- Period
- Model published August 8, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- The author's model; DeepStack reports its output, not its inputs.
- Limits
- A model with priced-in decay; the return moves with utilization, pricing and useful life.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- AI paper investment-grade shareJunkBondInvestor, August 9, 2026Part 03 · CreditJunkBondInvestor
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent of the index
- Universe
- AI-related bonds as a share of the US investment-grade corporate index
- Period
- Doubled in the year to August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- Which issuers count as AI-related is the author's classification.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- IPO proceedsRaised June 12 at near $1.75T valuationPart 02 · Capital Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- What SpaceX raised in its listing of June 12, 2026, at a valuation near $1.75 trillion
- Period
- June 12, 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported; gross proceeds before fees.
- Limits
- DeepStack read the offer terms through the publications cited, not the prospectus.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Peak-to-low drawdown$225.64 to $104.83 by early AugustPart 02 · Capital Markets
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- percent
- Universe
- SpaceX's share price, from its post-listing high close to its early-August low
- Period
- June 12 to early August 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- The drop from $225.64 to $104.83 divided by $225.64, which is 53.5%, rounded to 54%.
- Limits
- Closing prices; intraday extremes differ, and the low moved after the Part was published.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Compute deployedKakashii’s first-quarter reading, August 2026Part 02 · Capital MarketsKakashii
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- gigawatts
- Universe
- Compute capacity SpaceX had actually deployed, by Kakashii's reading of the first-quarter figures
- Period
- First quarter of 2026, read in August
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported by the voice.
- Limits
- The voice's reading of company figures; SpaceX reports no operating gigawatts directly, and the plan it is measured against is roughly 10 GW by the end of 2027.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Monthly Anthropic contractThrough May 2029, as documented by Kevin GeePart 02 · Capital MarketsAnthropic
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars a month
- Universe
- Anthropic's contracted monthly payment to SpaceX for compute, as documented by Kevin Gee
- Period
- Through May 2029, roughly $45 billion in total
- As of
- Transformation
- As documented by the voice; the total is the monthly amount over the remaining months, rounded.
- Limits
- A contract reported second-hand; escalators, minimums and termination rights are not public.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Apollo debtApollo transaction in late May, described by Michael BurryPart 01 · ChipsMichael Burry
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- Debt Apollo was raising in late May 2026 to put Google TPUs behind Anthropic, as Michael Burry described the transaction
- Period
- Late May 2026
- As of
- Transformation
- As reported by the voice; DeepStack has not read the financing documents.
- Limits
- A second-hand figure; Apollo's own disclosures may describe the facility differently, and the amount drawn is not public.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- AI XPU trancheApollo and Blackstone first tranche; Invest In Assets, ten weeks laterPart 01 · ChipsBlackstone
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- The first tranche Apollo and Blackstone were assembling for an AI XPU platform of Broadcom-designed compute
- Period
- Early August 2026, about ten weeks after the May transaction
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- A reported commitment, not drawn debt; later tranches and their terms are undisclosed.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Broadcom computeBroadcom-designed capacity promised through 2028; Invest In AssetsPart 01 · ChipsBroadcom
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- gigawatts
- Universe
- Broadcom-designed compute capacity promised under the AI XPU platform
- Period
- Through 2028
- As of
- Transformation
- As published.
- Limits
- A capacity promise; delivery depends on chips, sites and power that are not yet built.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
- Quarterly AI ordersBroadcom orders booked in one quarter; Invest In Assets, mid-2026Part 01 · ChipsBroadcom
Where this number comes from
- Unit
- US dollars
- Universe
- AI semiconductor orders Broadcom booked in one quarter, against $10.8 billion shipped
- Period
- One quarter of 2026, reported in August
- As of
- Transformation
- As published; the shipped figure is the publication's comparison, not a DeepStack calculation.
- Limits
- Orders are not revenue; cancellations and delivery timing are not disclosed.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026.
How to read these charts
- Reported figures come from the stories and carry the source and date shown under each chart.
- Implied values are hatched and labeled. They are derived from a reported growth rate, never guessed.
- Calculators and scenarios are DeepStack arithmetic on reported figures. They show sensitivities, not forecasts.
- Live charts carry a Live tag and the time of the last update. They are refreshed from U.S. Treasury; BLS; Federal Reserve H.15, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Board, BLS, BEA, DOL, Census Bureau, University of Michigan, OMB, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Cboe, EIA and IMF via FRED; Trading Economics for household inflation expectations, European gas, European power, uranium, lithium and forecast paths each time the site is rebuilt, not tick by tick.
- Not advice. The Data Desk is analysis and opinion, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.