SemiAnalysis

Part 16The loan is a bridge

Daniel Nishball of SemiAnalysis cast Nvidia on July 6 as the central bank of AI: small buyers can pay for GPUs but cannot show a lender a credit rating.

Part 13The plant is late

Reyk Knuhtsen of SemiAnalysis, on June 18, counted 311 gigawatts of the more than 410 gigawatts ERCOT was assessing in April as phantom data center demand, against an all-time Texas peak of about 85 gigawatts.

Part 13The plant is late

Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, also of SemiAnalysis, wrote on June 25 that utilities are pushing promised load ramps out by years for lack of long-lead equipment, while buyers carry the risk through letters of credit, deposits and take-or-pay contracts and the utilities, in many cases, face no penalty for delivering late.

Part 05The margin test

Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, working the unit economics for SemiAnalysis, calculates that a current-generation cluster can generate over $100bn of revenue per gigawatt-year against roughly $12bn of rental cost.

Part 02The meter versus the map

Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros at SemiAnalysis did more than read the slide.

Part 02The Call

The single most important reason is the gap between 0.4 gigawatts deployed and roughly 10 gigawatts that SemiAnalysis believes can stand by the end of 2027.