Person

Michael Spencer

Michael Spencer is named in 7 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 16: The Seller Holds the Paper. Argued in Part 5 (Anthropic: not yet), Part 5 (OpenAI: commoditized), Part 5 (Voices that cross sides), Part 9 (Still a demo), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet), Part 12 (Open weights set the price), Part 14 (The bill has moved to debt), Part 16 (Voices that cross sides).

In 7 parts of The Buildout: Part 16, Part 14, Part 12, Part 10, Part 09, Part 06, Part 05 · Updated Oct 22, 2026

What Michael Spencer argued

On the record, by story.

Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.

  1. Part 16 · Voices that cross sidesOct 1, 2026also Part 12

    Anthropic is far ahead of OpenAI pre-IPO, both in model quality and ARR, and that lead should only accelerate with IPO proceeds heading into its November IPO.

    The Seller Holds the Paper Who is on each side Source

  2. Part 14 · The bill has moved to debtOct 9, 2026

    A Financial Times report found OpenAI's annualized revenue as of late September 2026 was approximately $50 billion, roughly $20 billion lower than the $70 billion figure that had previously circulated in financial media.

    The Cash Arrives Unevenly Who is on each side Source

  3. Part 12 · Open weights set the priceOct 1, 2026

    Chinese AI models captured a majority share of 57% to 67% of total token usage on the OpenRouter developer platform by September 2026, eroding OpenAI's token marketshare even as OpenAI subsidizes its new cheaper GPT-6.1 Sol model.

    The Model Is Not the Price Who is on each side Source

  4. Part 10 · Not the customers, yetSep 11, 2026

    Michael Spencer reads declining frontier model usage as a sign that enterprises, startups and power users are becoming more price conscious even as token prices fall, citing Ramp's index showing effective price per million tokens down 41% to $0.68…

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator Who is on each side Source

  5. Part 10 · Not the customers, yetSep 11, 2026

    Michael Spencer argues that if there really is around US$3.5 trillion of off-the-books exposure on top of capex, the U.S. is in serious trouble if and when the AI boom falters, referencing an August Wall Street Journal report that combined…

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator Who is on each side Source

  6. Part 09 · Still a demoSep 29, 2026

    Michael Spencer is not confident about Muse's odds of success, citing that only Anthropic has shown how to scale ARR so far in this Generative AI cycle, that the ratio of app downloads to actual users seems fairly low and suspicious, and that Meta…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  7. Part 09 · Still a demoSep 8, 2026

    Generative AI's impact on the macro economy and labor market is a serious concern: higher inflation, less hiring, more anxiety, and a lack of ROI compared to the debt, capex and resulting AI bubble, with higher earnings masking dangerous…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  8. Part 09 · The owner of the agentSep 29, 2026

    Since Meta Muse optimizes how consumers clean up digital subscriptions they no longer care about, at scale it could implode subscriptions and accelerate subscription fatigue further in 2027, significantly hurting independent media providers such as…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  9. Part 09 · The owner of the agentSep 14, 2026

    Michael Spencer is not sure a future AI monopoly warning about human-extinction risk will be well received given how unpopular AI and Silicon Valley currently are in America, Europe and elsewhere, and says more will be known once there is more data…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side

  10. Part 05 · OpenAI: commoditizedAug 20, 2026

    Michael Spencer predicts Anthropic will achieve AI supremacy status in 2027 and by 2030 will have no comparable peer competitor, not Google, OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Alibaba.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  11. Part 05 · OpenAI: commoditizedAug 20, 2026

    Open-source Chinese models are disrupting OpenAI's revenue because routing and code wrappers increasingly favor them over OpenAI's models due to cheaper token costs, forcing OpenAI to cut API prices, including an 80% cut to GPT-5.6 Lune, which…

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  12. Part 05 · Anthropic: not yetAug 20, 2026

    Anthropic's ARR grew from approximately $700 million in August 2024 to its current level, a roughly 93x increase in about two years.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  13. Part 05 · Anthropic: not yetAug 20, 2026

    Cognition's Devin achieved a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate and a $40 billion valuation in under two years, making it exceptional among AI startups for this pace of revenue growth.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  14. Part 05 · Voices that cross sidesAug 20, 2026

    As Devin and similar tools scale, they drive increased token usage of Anthropic's models, creating a compounding benefit to Anthropic.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  15. Part 05 · Voices that cross sidesSep 10, 2026

    Europe's dream of sovereign AI leadership is fading because Mistral, despite raising 3.5 billion dollars at a 21 billion euro valuation, has been unable to compete with the United States or China in open-source AI models.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

In The Buildout

Where Michael Spencer appears.

One line per story, from the story itself.

  2. Part 14The buyers have not paid yet

    Tae Kim relayed on October 2 that Axios and the Financial Times put OpenAI's annual recurring revenue near $70 billion; Michael Spencer of AI Supremacy wrote on October 9 that a later Financial Times report found about $50 billion.

    The Cash Arrives Unevenly

  3. Part 12Lede

    On October 1, Michael Spencer counted Chinese models at 57% to 67% of token usage on the OpenRouter platform by September.

    The Model Is Not the Price

  4. Part 10Who writes the checks

    Michael Spencer adds a price warning: Ramp’s index showed what customers pay per million tokens down 41% from its March peak, to $0.68.

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator

  5. Part 09The first bill

    Michael Spencer, who covers the AI industry daily, expects about 1 million users by November, doubts the ratio of downloads to users and warns that Muse’s compute bill could crater Meta’s free cash flow in 2027.

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.

  6. Part 06Politics sets the price

    Michael Spencer relays polling that puts opposition to large data centers near people’s homes at 70% to 75%, with more than half of Americans supporting a national moratorium.

    Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.

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Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.