Person

TSCS

TSCS is named in 4 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 7 (Voices that cross sides), Part 13 (The bill no state can shield), Part 13 (The plant is late), Part 13 (Voices that cross sides).

In 4 parts of The Buildout: Part 15, Part 13, Part 10, Part 07 · Updated Oct 22, 2026

What TSCS argued

On the record, by story.

Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.

  1. Part 13 · The bill no state can shieldFeb 26, 2026

    Interconnection queues, turbine shortages, and permitting gridlock are preventing $33 billion offers from translating into actual megawatts of new capacity.

    The Ratepayer Pays First Who is on each side Source

  2. Part 13 · The bill no state can shieldAug 11, 2026

    The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.

    The Ratepayer Pays First Who is on each side Source

  3. Part 13 · The plant is lateFeb 26, 2026

    PJM's 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction failed to meet the reliability requirement for the first time since the capacity market's creation in 2007, achieving only a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, a shortfall of 6,623 MW.

    The Ratepayer Pays First Who is on each side Source

  4. Part 13 · Voices that cross sides

    The capacity price ninefold; the auction short; on-site power could shrink the gap.

    The Ratepayer Pays First Who is on each side Source

  5. Part 07 · Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%Aug 29, 2026

    The Federal Reserve faces a trap: if it hikes rates it loses control of the long end because it feeds an annual interest bill approaching $1 trillion, but if it cuts despite 3.4% inflation it also loses the long end, creating a frustrating setup…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  6. Part 07 · Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%Sep 21, 2026

    TSCS argues governments and central banks do not want long yields higher and will go a long way to stop it, which means that if they succeed real yields fall and today's 2.65% over inflation won't be on offer for long, and if the way they succeed…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  7. Part 07 · A missing buyerSep 21, 2026

    Oil explains the day-to-day wiggles in yields but not the trend, since Brent is cheaper today than at its spring peak while the 10-year is 70bp higher, even though since the war a $10 Brent move has come with about 5bp on the 10-year (roughly 3…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  8. Part 07 · A missing buyerSep 16, 2026

    TSCS argues the front end cannot cap the long end: a hike is only about 4/10 of a percent of receipts and mostly lands as income with people who spend it, Treasury buybacks manage volatility rather than level, and the buyers who used to close the…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  9. Part 07 · Voices that cross sidesAug 29, 2026

    Kevin Warsh is a pretend hawk rather than a constrained one, meaning he talks tough on inflation while avoiding costly action, and this position can be falsified by a rate hike on 16 September.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  10. Part 07 · Voices that cross sidesSep 16, 2026

    TSCS's forward view is that oil and long yields keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P is the only release valve left: the bond-market valve that worked in April 2025 is the one the buybacks are designed to keep shut.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

In The Buildout

Where TSCS appears.

One line per story, from the story itself.

  4. Part 13Lede

    The auction of July 2024 set it at $269.92 per megawatt-day for the year from June 2025, nine times the $28.92 of the auction before, and every auction since has cleared at the price ceiling, as PJM's auction reports show and tscsw recounted on August 11.

    The Ratepayer Pays First

  5. Part 13Lede

    The auction for the year from June 2027, PJM reported on December 17, 2025 and tscsw wrote on February 26, was the first since the market began in 2007 to miss PJM's reliability requirement: a reserve margin, the cushion of plants above expected peak demand, of 14.8% against a 20.0% target, 6,623 megawatts short.

    The Ratepayer Pays First

  6. Part 13The plant is late

    The strongest form of this side cuts against the house. tscsw's February 26 post held that if 15 to 20 gigawatts of data center load moves behind the meter by 2030, the grid's deficit and the scarcity premium paid to generators in PJM and ERCOT would shrink.

    The Ratepayer Pays First

  10. Part 07The calm is real

    TSCS warns that thin trading in inflation-protected bonds makes the split less precise; a Fed staff model that strips out that illiquidity puts it closer to 70/30 than 90/10.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

On the Docket

The tests that name TSCS.

Each is on the Docket and resolves on the Results page.

  1. At 5.5% 10-year

    A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pending

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Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.